Warriors vs Rockets Picks and Predictions: Keeping Things Close at Home

The Houston Rockets will most likely lose to the Golden State Warriors on Monday, but with Draymond Green still sidelined we like Christian Wood & Co. to keep things close enough to cover an 11-point spread in our NBA betting picks.

Zachary Cohen - Contributor at Covers.com
Jan 31, 2022 • 08:29 ET • 5 min read
Christian Wood Houston Rockets NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Rockets are undeniably one of the worst teams in basketball this season, but they’ll be hoping to stay competitive against the Golden State Warriors on Monday. The Rockets have a chance to snap the Warriors’ five-game winning streak at home. 

Will Houston put a scare into Golden State? Check out our best free NBA betting picks and predictions to find out.

Warriors vs Rockets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Rockets opened as 10.5-point home underdogs in this meeting with the Warriors, and they’re actually now getting 11 in some places. The total has also gone up a bit, with it opening at 230 and now sitting at 230.5 in some places.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Warriors vs Rockets predictions

Predictions made on 1/31/2022 at 1:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Warriors vs Rockets game info

Location: Toyota Arena, Houston, TX
Date: Monday, January 31, 2022
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS Bay Arena, AT&T Sportsnet

Warriors vs Rockets betting preview


Warriors: Nemanja Bjelica F (Questionable), Andre Iguodala F (Out), Draymond Green F (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Rockets: Kevin Porter Jr. G (Questionable), John Wall G (Out), Usman Garuba F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Rockets are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games versus teams with winning percentages above 60%. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Rockets.

Warriors vs Rockets picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Warriors might be on a five-game winning streak, but the team hasn’t been as dominant on both ends of the floor as it was with Draymond in the lineup. Golden State has failed to cover in four of its last six games and is also just 1-3 against the spread in the last four games where the team was favored by double digits. 

Against a Rockets team dead last in the league in defensive rating, it’s not fair to expect Houston to get many important stops against Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins. The Rockets do, however, have a ton of offensive talent, with Jalen Green, Eric Gordon, and Christian Wood all capable of putting up decent numbers. Wood should be especially excited to see Draymond out of the lineup as the Warriors don’t have many players with the size and mobility to cover him. 

Also, with Draymond out, there might not be a player on the floor who will be able to match the intensity of forward Jae’Sean Tate. The Rockets should crash the glass extremely hard and his intensity will make it tough for the Warriors to really settle into a comfortable rhythm. 

Overall, this should be a straightforward win for the Warriors, but the Rockets will have their moments and avoid getting blown out. 

Prediction: Rockets -11 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

While these teams combined to score only 208 points when they met on January 21, this one should be a bit higher scoring. The Warriors are averaging 121.3 points over their last three games, and they have really started to get more comfortable on the offensive end with Draymond out. A lot of that has to do with Thompson becoming a bit more of a threat as a scorer, and he’s going to continue to get better and better the more he plays coming off of those devastating injuries. This team should really put up a big number on the offensive end against a Houston team that doesn’t play any defense. 

Houston has also gone Over the total in 28 of its 48 games this season. The Over is also 14-8 when the team Is playing at home this year. That makes a whole lot of sense when you consider that this team struggles to get stops, while also factoring in that role players tend to shoot better in front of their own home fans. 

Prediction: Over 230 (-110)

Best bet

The Rockets already played the Warriors extremely close just a week ago, and they now get to face them at home. Golden State will surely be a bit more focused this time around, but this is still a little too big of a spread for the Warriors to have to cover on the road without Draymond. Golden State has won five in a row, however, this group is still just 2-4 ATS in its last six contests. 

The Warriors also happen to be just 5-7 ATS as road favorites this season, and they’re 6-10 ATS in January. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 8-7 ATS when playing as underdogs of 10 or more points this season. Houston is also coming off of two days of rest and the team is 5-3 ATS in that scenario this season. 

Bottom line: if Draymond was healthy and active, this would be a different story. Without his defensive prowess, even against a vastly inferior team, you can't count on Golden State to cover such a lofty spread.

Pick: Rockets +11 (-110)

NBA parlays

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