The Oklahoma City Thunder may have cooled off after a ruthless start to the season, but they’ll see one of their favorite punching bags tonight as they take on the Memphis Grizzlies.
OKC has won 15 straight matchups against Memphis, and while both teams bring depleted rosters into this contest, my Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions lean more on the visitors’ supporting cast to answer the bell.
Read on for my NBA picks for Friday, January 9.
Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction
Thunder vs Grizzlies best bet: Ajay Mitchell Over 18.5 points (-120)
This feels like a good moment for the Oklahoma City Thunder to rest and reset after a challenging couple of weeks – and it doubles as a chance to unleash Ajay Mitchell in an expanded role.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace both ruled out, and Alex Caruso listed as questionable, Mitchell will get the keys to the offense for long periods against the Memphis Grizzlies, and that’s where I’m looking for my best bet tonight.
OKC is also dealing with frontcourt injuries, so we should see a steady diet of jumpers from Mitchell, Jalen Williams, and Aaron Wiggins, and it helps that Memphis is also trying to adjust its rotation with such a lengthy injury report.
Mitchell is averaging 13.9 PPG in almost 26 minutes a night this year, and he’s made his 3-pointers at a 39% clip since the beginning of December. But he’s surely a lock for 30+ minutes here as the visitors’ lead guard.
He poured in 18.5 PPG in October as a more featured part of the Thunder offense, but that was still an SGA-led attack.
The ceiling is much higher for Mitchell here, and I see him reminding the NBA world that he’s got what it takes to be a starter in this league.
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Thunder vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
The Under is 23-14 for the Grizzlies this season, and I’m leaning into that trend with so many proven scorers missing this matchup. We’ve also seen eight Unders in the past 10 meetings between these squads. Memphis should also be sturdier defensively without Ja Morant in the lineup.
Lu Dort is another OKC player to pencil in for an uptick in minutes here. He logged three swipes in Wednesday’s OT win over the Utah Jazz, and he’s finished with at least one steal in four of his last five games. That spells trouble for some of the Grizzlies’ less-experienced ball-handlers.
Thunder vs Grizzlies SGP
- Ajay Mitchell Over 18.5 points
- Under 229
- Luguentz Dort Over 0.5 steals
Our "from downtown" SGP: JJ's Way!
Jaren Jackson Jr. won’t get many better chances to dominate the paint than against a Thunder team missing Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
While Jackson's erratic rebounding numbers remain head-scratching, he’s grabbed 7+ boards in five of his last eight games. There’s more consistency in his scoring – 19.8 PPG so far this month – and there are lots of shots available with Morant sidelined.
Thunder vs Grizzlies SGP
- Ajay Mitchell Over 18.5 points
- Under 229
- Luguentz Dort Over 0.5 steals
- Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 27.5 points + rebounds
Thunder vs Grizzlies odds
- Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-110) | Grizzlies +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -180 | Grizzlies +157
- Over/Under: Over 231.5 (-110) | Under 231.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Grizzlies betting trend to know
The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 matchups against the Grizzlies. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Thunder vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Friday, January 9, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN OK, FDSN SE-MEM |
Thunder vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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