As the series shifts to Minnesota, the Timberwolves return home looking to respond in Game 3 against the San Antonio Spurs, with our NBA player prop projections identifying several strong value spots on the board.
By breaking down the data and comparing it to the latest market lines, we’ve uncovered where the strongest betting edges lie for this pivotal matchup.
These Spurs vs. Timberwolves predictions are driven by numbers instead of guesswork.
If you’re building your card, here are the model’s top NBA picks for Friday, May 8.
Spurs vs Timberwolves computer picks for Game 3
 Spurs |
 Timberwolves |
|---|---|
| Wembanyama o12.5 rebounds -110 |
Edwards u23.5 points -115 |
| Castle o16.5 points -112 |
Gobert o10.5 rebounds -135 |
| Fox o5.5 assists -105 |
Reid o1.5 3-pointers -150 |
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Spurs Game 3 computer picks
Victor Wembanyama Over 10.5 rebounds (-110)
Projection: 13.44 rebounds
Death. Taxes. And Victor Wembanyama snatching up rebounds for the San Antonio Spurs like it's going out of style.
This one has become a staple for a reason, and there’s little indication that changes now. Expect Wemby to keep doing Wemby things and stay active on the boards.
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Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points (-112)
Projection: 17.18 points
Stephon Castle has been operating like a well-oiled machine throughout the playoffs, especially against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s shot 50% or better in both Game 1 and Game 2 against Minnesota and has cleared his points prop in each outing.
With that level of consistency, there’s little reason to expect the trend to slow down anytime soon.
De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists (-105)
Projection: 6.18 assists
De’Aaron Fox has cleared this assists line in five of the Spurs’ last seven playoff games, reinforcing how effective San Antonio is when he’s setting the table and keeping them within striking distance — or outright in control.
Playmaking is built into Fox’s game, and he’s not likely to drift away from what makes him most effective.
Timberwolves Game 3 computer picks
Anthony Edwards Under 23.5 points (-115)
Projection: 20.95 points
The Timberwolves are taking a cautious approach with Anthony Edwards’ health, making it no surprise that his points prop is leaning toward the Under.
While he’d undoubtedly like to bounce back and help erase the disappointment from Game 2, Minnesota’s priority is keeping his minutes in check to avoid aggravating his knee issue and risking further setback.
Rudy Gobert Over 10.5 rebounds (-135)
Projection: 11.56 rebounds
Rudy Gobert has been right on the edge of this rebounds line, grabbing 10 boards in both Games 1 and 2 against the Spurs.
With the Timberwolves looking to respond in Game 3, he should have another strong opportunity on the glass—and this time, it feels like he finally breaks through and hits the Over.
Naz Reid Over 1.5 3-pointers
Projection: 2.04 3-pointers
Naz Reid has been knocking down threes at a hot clip against the Spurs, shooting 67% in Game 1 and 75% in Game 2.
He’s consistently been good for at least one or two triples throughout the playoffs, and with the series shifting back to Minnesota, there’s little reason to expect that trend to slow down now. He'll do enough from beyond the arc to clear the Over in Game 3.
How to watch Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 3
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Friday, May 8, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Not intended for use in MA.
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