Rockets vs Timberwolves Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Setting Up the Stifle Tower

For a team tied atop the Western Conference, the Minnesota Timberwolves are unexpectedly frustrated. They have gone just 4-4 outright in their last eight and 3-5 against the spread. Saturday’s loss at home to the Orlando Magic once again underscored Minnesota’s biggest problem, an inability to score in the fourth quarter in a two-point loss gifted to Orlando by losing 28-18 in the final frame.

For a team in the thick of the postseason race, the Houston Rockets could also be described as unexpectedly frustrated. The Rockets were never likely to stay in the Top 6 of the West, as they were on Dec. 15, but going 6-10 in the last month has solidified Houston as a play-in team, at best. They may try to improve the roster this week, but until then, doubting the Rockets makes sense.

Yet it is still hard to trust the Timberwolves, despite their status as favorites in the NBA odds. There may be one exact angle, though, where that trust would be well-placed in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Rockets vs the Timberwolves on February 4, with tip set for 7:00 ET.

Rockets vs Timberwolves odds

Rockets vs Timberwolves predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves reportedly spent a full hour in film study as a team on Saturday, something the casual fan may assume happens regularly but is actually a bit of an in-season rarity. The onus of the session was on late-game responsibilities, as Minnesota has wasted clutch moments in the last few weeks by getting away from what works.

As good as All-Stars Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns are at scoring on their own, the isolation game has become a Timberwolves failing. Arguably its best offensive approach has been by using three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.

Gobert had 17 points in the first half on Friday. Minnesota leaned into what works early, particularly with Mike Conley’s return to the lineup. Eventually, the Magic adjusted and slowed down Gobert, but just as compromising was that the Timberwolves stopped looking for him.

Minnesota head coach Chris Finch probably did not spend the entire Saturday hour arguing for more of an offensive role for his defensive linchpin, but more of one should come.

Furthermore, the Timberwolves tend to turn to Gobert when their defense is humming, rewarding the Defensive Player of the Year odds frontrunner (-550 at FanDuel with OG Anunoby at +900 as the next option) for his effort.

That horse-and-carrot habit, if you will, ties Minnesota’s good games together. If the Timberwolves play well defensively, they enjoy transition buckets and they reward Gobert. Both offensive approaches stray from the isolation looks that have repeatedly doomed Minnesota in the last couple of weeks.

The weekend focus should thus emphasize Gobert tonight against the Houston Rockets.

My best bet: Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)

Rockets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 points

Mike Conley Over 6.5 assists

Rockets team total Under 107.5

+650 at DraftKings

If betting on Gobert to score points, then betting on Conley to rack up assists makes too much sense. The veteran point guard has been in and out of the lineup with a nagging hamstring, a contributing factor to Minnesota’s repeated clutch-time failures, but when Conley has been in, he has largely moved the ball.

Conley has averaged 6.9 assists in his last nine games, dishing out nine or more in three with seven in one other.

That film session emphasized initiating late-game offense through Conley, something Edwards may not be inclined to do instinctively but is still beyond argument logically. If Conley dishes a couple of early pick-and-rolls to Gobert, then a couple of fourth-quarter offensive sets will propel him Over his assists prop.

But make no mistake, Minnesota’s success will be determined by its defense, and that defense has not been the problem. Four of the Timberwolves’ last six opponents went Under their team totals, the two exceptions each by only two buckets, and the four Unders coming by an average of 9.9 points.

This is the seventh game in 12 days for the Rockets, not a rare occurrence in the NBA but one that quietly catches up with a team.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rockets vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with the Rockets as 7-point underdogs, a number that flexed up to +8 late on Saturday before returning to +7 first thing Sunday morning. Houston has not only floundered in the standings by going 5-9 SU in the last four weeks, but it has also gone 5-9 ATS.

Worse yet, that includes going 2-5 ATS when a double-digit underdog.

The total opened Saturday afternoon at 216.5 and steadily ticked up to 219 before night’s end and then to 222 by midday on Sunday. Gobert is nursing a trick ankle, but the expectation is he will play, so that total move is a bit flummoxing.

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Rockets vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

Houston is 8-12-1 ATS on the road this season, including 2-6 since Jan. 1. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Timberwolves.

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