The dying days of the NBA regular season are loaded with unknowns.
While bettors are scratching their heads when it comes to motivations, minutes, and matchups, take comfort in knowing that bookmakers are doing the same.
Picking through the prop markets for value at this time of year requires digging deeper beyond stats and projections. I do my damndest to find those underlying edges with my best NBA prop picks for Wednesday, April 8.
Best NBA player props today
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Chet Holmgren |
Over 14.5 points | -110 |
 Donovan Mitchell |
Under 24.5 points | -105 |
 Aaron Gordon |
Over 2.5 assists | +120 |
Prop #1: Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 Points
The Oklahoma City Thunder can secure the No. 1-overall seed in the NBA Playoffs with a win over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. This contest looks a lot stiffer than OKC’s recent run of games.
The Thunder were set as double-digit faves in nine of their last 11 outings. Oklahoma City steamrolled in their three most recent showings, allowing for a lighter load for starters like Chet Holmgren.
Holmgren logged just 18, 20, and 22 minutes in that span, but the game script says he’ll see his normal workload (30+ minutes) vs. a Clippers squad (+6.5) still pushing for postseason positioning.
Los Angeles is running thin in the frontcourt. It’s been missing reserve center Yanic Konan Niederhauser for a month, and lost Isaiah Jackson to an ankle injury at the end of March. That’s left L.A. to roll out a much smaller rotation and lean on the 37-year-old legs of Brook Lopez as the lone center.
Holmgren will draw checks from the slower Lopez or smaller forwards John Collins and Nicolas Batum. His points production is forecast between 15.5 and 16.2 versus a scoring prop of 14.5 O/U.
There’s a much higher ceiling for OKC’s 7-footer, with these numbers tempered by his reduced action in the Thunder’s blowouts. Holmgren dropped 22 points in his last matchup with L.A. in December, and the Clippers still had Ivica Zubac.
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Oklahoma, FanDuel Sports SoCal
Prop #2: Donovan Mitchell Under 24.5 Points
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks are going to be sick of each other. Not only do they close out the schedule with a home-and-home set, but they’re likely meeting in a first-round playoff series.
Cleveland is locked in the No. 4 seed and has nothing to play for in these final games, which means not only protecting your stars but also not tipping your hand against this Atlanta defense.
Guard Donovan Mitchell is one matchup the Hawks need to solve, but they may not get much intel from the Cavs, at least not tonight.
Mitchell suffered an ankle injury on the weekend and sat out Monday’s win over Memphis. While he’s listed as questionable, Mitchell downplayed the injury and has been adamant about playing out the final games of the schedule.
Player projections vary based on his floor time, with some models sitting as low as 23.2 and others peaking above 29 points. Given Atlanta’s defensive prowess (No. 9 in defensive rating) and the Cavs potentially capping Mitchell’s minutes, I’m leaning toward the lower forecasts.
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Ohio, FanDuel Sports Southeast-Atlanta
Prop #3: Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 Assists
The Denver Nuggets aren’t done yet. With three games remaining, Denver is fighting off a crowd of Western Conference contenders for the No. 3 seed. A matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies helps a lot.
The Nuggets are peaking at the perfect time, bringing a nine-game winning streak into Wednesday, and veteran forward Aaron Gordon is rounding into form after dealing with injury issues all winter.
Gordon does it all for Denver, including setting up his teammates. Since getting back to his normal workload in mid-March, Gordon is averaging 3.0 assists on 6.3 potential assists over his last seven games.
He’s dished out five and three dimes in overtime wins against Portland and San Antonio and faces a much easier defense from the Grizzlies. Memphis gives up the fifth-most assists and sits 20th in assist rate allowed on the season. And that's the full squad. The Grizz could hold open tryouts for warm bodies today with just seven healthy players listed.
Player projections for Gordon all sit north of three assists with a ceiling of 3.5 dimes tonight.
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Altitude Sports, FanDuel Sports Memphis
These props are available now at bet365, one of our best betting sites.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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