Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Morant Takes Off vs. Rockets

Sunday’s NBA betting slate is the perfect distraction before heading back to work, with eight games in action. 

We’re passing on the two afternoon tilts and putting focus on the evening outings, scouring the NBA prop odds for our favorite alternative options beyond the nightly spreads and total.

If you’re betting on the pro hoops hardwood Sunday night, here are our free NBA player prop picks and predictions for March 6.

NBA player props for March 6

• Gobert Over 2.5 blocks + steals
• Hield Over 8.5 rebounds + assists 
• Morant Over 29.5 points

Picks made on 3/6/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Block Lockdown

Another NBA season rolls on and another Defensive Player of the Year trophy is likely heading to Rudy Gobert’s mantle. The Utah Jazz’s big man and three-time Defensive Player of the Year winner is the betting favorite (-160) to tie legendary NBA stoppers Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace with four DPOY nods.

Gobert can add to that chalk against Oklahoma City. The Thunder thrive on getting into the paint for the bulk of their field goal attempts, averaging 20.3 FGA inside the key (fourth most), and step inside Gobert’s office tonight. Oklahoma City suffers 6.3 blocks per game (tied for most in the NBA) and faces the league’s premier shot swatter, with Gobert sending back 2.2 attempts per contest.

On top of that, OKC has been sloppy with the basketball in recent showings, with injuries leaving the backcourt thin. The Thunder have coughed up the ball an NBA-high 55 times over the past three contests, leading to 38 total steals in that span. 

The last time Gobert clashed with Oklahoma City, he walked away with five blocks and two steals on November 24. We like the Jazz’s tower of power to easily top his blocks + steals prop of 2.5 tonight.

Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 2.5 blocks + steals (-130)

High Yield from Hield

Things are a little congested in the Indiana Pacers’ backcourt since veteran PG Malcolm Brogdon returned from injury. 

Brogdon has poured in 57 points on 17-of-41 shooting in the last two games while fellow guard Tyrese Haliburton has 29 points on 10-for-24 shooting in that two-game span. 

Buddy Hield, who joined the Pacers at the trade deadline, has put up efforts of 16 and 17 points in those two games with Brogdon back but is finding other ways to influence Indiana. In his last two outings, Hield has collected 13 rebounds and 12 assists. 

Since joining the Pacers, his stat sheet is much fuller with an average of 5.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists over his nine games in the yellow and blue – spiking from his Sacramento production of just 4.0 boards and 1.9 assists an outing. 

While Hield’s point production may dip with Brogdon back, his opportunities to dish out assists and wrangle rebounds have never been higher.

Pick: Buddy Hield Over 8.5 rebounds + assists (EVEN)

Houston, “Ja” have a problem

Playing back-to-back games can suck the energy from even the best players in the league. But Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant has a battery that would make the Energizer Bunny second guess his life choices. 

Morant should have plenty left in the tank for Sunday’s trip to Houston, playing only 28 minutes in the Grizzlies’ blowout win over Orlando on Saturday: still scoring 25 points on 9-of-17 shooting and leaving points on the table with a 4-for-7 day from the free-throw line.

Morant’s motor and fearless approach have him atop the league in points in the paint, scoring 16.7 points per game from inside the key. That attacking mentality also sends the second-year dynamo out of Murray State to the charity stripe an average of 7.2 times per contest (seventh most).

The Rockets roll into the weekend as the second-worst defense at defending the paint, giving up almost 52 points inside per outing. Adding to those woes, Houston gets whistled for an average of 20.4 personal fouls which equates to 23.5 free-throw attempts allowed per contest.

Morant’s point prop total for Sunday is set at 29.5, which seems very attainable considering he’s put forth scoring efforts of 38, 52 and 46 in his last four showings. He’s averaging just under 28 points on the season. 

The biggest factor working against this prop is another blowout – and subsequent minute reduction for Morant. But to Houston’s defense, it’s hung tough in recent outings against some quality foes.

Pick: Ja Morant Over 29.5 points (-105)

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