There are only six games on the NBA betting board this Saturday, but there are still hundreds of betting options if you check out the player props.
I've got my eye on one of the best players in the world who is poised for a big performance in an exciting showdown between MVP candidates. I'm also fading a role player who rarely gets buckets, while backing Domantas Sabonis to keep dishing in my best free NBA player prop picks for March 25.
NBA player props for March 25
Picks made on 3/25/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Get Him to the Greek
The biggest matchup of the day is a showdown between the Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets. Not only does this game feature two of the better teams in the league, but it will also be a showcase for Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo to make a major statement in the MVP race.
Giannis is averaging 31.1 points per game on 54.9% shooting this season and what's most impressive is that he's doing that in just 31.8 minutes. His Per 36 minutes-scoring average of 34.8 is the second-highest in NBA history, behind only Wilt Chamberlain in the year where he dropped 50.4 ppg.
The "Greek Freak" is coming off a game where he had 24 points in just 25 minutes of floor time in a blow-out win against the Jazz. Playing against the Nuggets on their home floor will be a much tougher test for the Bucks, who will likely give Giannis plenty of minutes and touches in the paint.
The Nuggets are 25th in the league in points in the paint allowed per game (52.8) and they've allowed opponents to shoot 61.6% from 2-point range over their last three games. With Giannis averaging 18.5 points in the paint per contest while also getting to the line for a league-high 12.4 free-throw attempts, back him to go Over his points total.
Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Over 30.5 points (-115)
Fade DFS
There tends to be betting value in props when players end up on new teams and books adjust to a change in their role.
Dorian Finney-Smith was averaging 9.1 points per game with Dallas but has seen that number dip to 6.3 ppg in 19 contests since being acquired by the Brooklyn Nets. That number is even a bit inflated by a pair of outlier performances where he drained five 3-pointers and ended up with 15 and 17 points.
This is a guy who knocks down 1.2 treys per game at a pathetic 26.1% rate, so don't Finney-Smith to have a decent offensive performance against a Miami team that plays at a very slow pace and allows the second-fewest ppg (109.7) in the NBA.
The O/U on Finney-Smith's points total is set at 6.5, which is a number he has gone below in 13 of 19 games with Brooklyn — including his last five in a row. Take the Under again.
Dorian Finney-Smith prop: Under 6.5 points (-110)
Dishing Dimes
The Sacramento Kings host the Utah Jazz in what should be a high-scoring contest between two teams that play at a fast pace, shoot the ball well, and don't give a damn about defending.
That should bode well for the chances that Domantas Sabonis goes Over his assists total of 8.5. Sabonis is averaging an extremely impressive 7.3 assists per game and he has really been racking up assists lately. The big man has dropped at least nine dimes in eight of his last 10 games and is averaging 9.5 apg over that span.
The Jazz rank 24th in the league in scoring defense (117.8 ppg allowed), with that number ticking up to 119.1 ppg on the road. Expect Sabonis to take advantage of that subpar defense and stuff the stat sheet once again.
Domantas Sabonis prop: Over 8.5 assists (-108)
