With the series knotted at 2-2, the Western Conference semifinal set between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder becomes a best-two-out-of-three battle, with Game 5 in OKC tonight.
Oklahoma City is a sizeable favorite, but I’m pushing that point spread to the side and aiming for the Nuggets vs. Thunder props.
Here are my best NBA picks and predictions for May 13.
Best Nuggets vs Thunder props
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Westbrook o7.5 asts + rebs (+110) -
Hartenstein 10+ pts & 10+ rebs (+240) - Dort o8.5 pts (-130)
Nuggets vs Thunder player props for May 13
Russell Westbrook Over 7.5 assists + rebounds (+110 at bet365)
Russell Westbrook is a stat sheet stuffer but has been mired in a scoring funk the past two games versus OKC. After putting up 18 and 19 points, respectively, in the first two games of the series, the former MVP is a combined 5-for-20 from the floor for a total of 13 points the past two contests.
However, Westbrook can impact the game in other ways. His defense has been sold in this series and he’s always active on the glass as well as making plays for others.
Player projections for Game 5 are quite bullish on Westbrook’s rebounds, with forecasts running from 4.0 to 5.1 boards (his O/U is 3.5). His assists models are also positive, calling for between 4.1 and 5.6 dimes tonight (O/U is 3.5).
While Westbrook’s recent box scores don’t match that same bar, his advanced metrics show plenty of activity against the Thunder. Over the last four games, he’s registered 6.0 potential assists and 5.5 rebounding chances.
My number for Game 5 comes out to 4.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists from Westbrook, which gets us well above his current combo prop total of 7.5 assists + rebounds. Based on my projections, that result should be priced around -218, but you can grab it at +110 at bet365.
Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ points & 10+ rebounds (+240 at bet365)
Isaiah Hartenstein has been vital to the Thunder’s success on both ends of the floor and he’s watched his minutes rise the past two games with a playoff-high 33 minutes of floor time in Game 4.
Defensively, he’s sharing the duties on Nikola Jokic — and doing a fine job — while also cleaning the glass for more than 10 rebounds per game versus Denver. Offensively, he’s giving OKC interior scoring and second-chance buckets, putting 11.0 points though the first four contests.
Surprisingly, given those stats, he’s only registered one double-double so far against Denver and has just two in the postseason overall.
Game 5 models are calling for another big night for Oklahoma City’s 7-footer. His rebounding props sit between 9.1 and 11.3 points tonight while his scoring projections bounce between 8.9 and 12.4 points.
The majority of those models sit above 10 points and 10 rebounds from Hartenstein, with my numbers settling in at 11 points and 10.6 rebounds.
The double-double markets offer “Yes” for Hartenstein at +200 — giving you the option of double figures in points, rebounds, assists, steal, or blocks. But if you put the most likely combo — points and rebounds — into 10+ a same game parlay, you can pump that payout up to +240 for Game 5.
Lu Dort Over 8.5 points (-130 at bet365)
Lu Dort watched the closing minutes of Game 4 from the bench, with Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault deciding to go with Alex Caruso instead. Dort was struggling on offense, going 2-for-10 from the floor on Sunday and played just 19 minutes.
His shooting slump has been over two games, with the stocky guard a collective 3-for-16 (2-for-14 from 3-point range) for a total of nine points in the two contests in Denver.
Daigneault said the decision isn’t written in stone and that he still has confidence in Dort’s abilities. Dort is still a key member of the OKC defensive scheme and logged 27, 30, and 34 minutes in the first three games of the series.
"I definitely trust the body of work over time more than small sample sizes,” Daigneault said of Dort’s shooting skid.
The series comes back to the Paycom Center for Game 5, where Dort scored 12 and 14 points, respectively, in the opening two games of this conference semifinal. On the season, he’s more comfortable at home, averaging 11.3 points on 45.5% shooting compared to just 8.5 points on 41% success away from OKC.
Player projections for Game 5 all sit at 10 or more points, with a ceiling of 12.0. My number comes out just shy of 11 points, which should have the Over 8.5 points priced around -180. It takes the sting out of laying -130 for Dort to get right tonight.
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