How much motivation can the Boston Celtics muster after their last 48 hours? Losing Game 4 to give the New York Knicks a 3-1 series lead was bad enough.
Seeing superstar Jayson Tatum go down with an obvious Achilles injury and now pondering next season without him? That is a blow no postseason team should suffer.
Not even the Golden State Warriors have suffered that much this postseason, despite being down 3-1 in their series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, in no small part because Steph Curry has missed three-plus games with a strained hamstring.
When pondering your NBA picks for Wednesday, May 14, some consideration should be given to how the Celtics might respond fresh off that frustration, while the Warriors are now long past theirs.
Today's best NBA Playoff parlay: May 14
Celtics -5
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Over 203
Timberwolves -10.5
Pick #1: Celtics -5
It is perhaps my most trusted betting axiom. “Buy on bad news, sell on good.”
The simplest way to look at it is to fade the public’s overreaction. Yes, Jayson Tatum is out tonight (and likely all of next season).
Yes, he is one of the best players in the NBA. And yes, the Boston Celtics are worse off without him.
But realize that Boston was a 10-point favorite at home in Game 2. Is Tatum worth a full five points to the spread? Or even more, given this line has spent time at -4.5?
Perhaps in a vacuum, he would be. Put Tatum on a team lacking the Celtics’ depth and losing him could cripple their offense.
Luckily, Boston has one of the best benches in the NBA. In 10 games without Tatum this year, the Celtics’ offensive rating fell by just 2.5 points. Their defensive rating improved by 4.3 points.
So yes, one could statistically argue Boston was better by 1.8 points per 100 possessions without Tatum than it was with him. Obviously, statistics can and often lie.
But the Celtics are certainly not five points worse without Tatum.
If Boston has given up on this series after seeing that injury, then sure, this spread of -5 might even be lofty. However, the Celtics are just as likely to double down and show some pride against the New York Knicks.
Ignore those intangibles and instead focus on the clear value of this suppressed spread.
Pick #2: Warriors vs. Timberwolves Over 203
Game 3’s second quarter and Game 4’s fourth quarter have obscured a fact: The Minnesota Timberwolves have solved what was the NBA’s best defense since the All-Star Break.
Minnesota poured in the points in a 50-minute stretch beginning at the end of Game 3’s third quarter. Only Game 4’s blowout kept the Timberwolves from scoring 130+ in that game alone, to affirm to the world that their offense has shown up.
From Ant's dunk on Kevon Looney late in the third of Game 3 through the end of the third quarter of Game 4, so 50 minutes of action: The Timberwolves scored 137 points on 22-of-41 (53.7%) from deep and 54.0% from the field. https://t.co/khnNn8lZqF
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) May 14, 2025
Some of that ties to Steph Curry’s injury. The Golden State Warriors’ defense is not as good without him. No, that was not a typo. Defense.
First of all, Curry knows where to be at all times. He may not be the absolute best defender, but proper positioning is not as common as it should be.
Secondly, making shots on offense helps your defense get set. As Golden State’s offense has struggled without Curry, Minnesota has found more transition or secondary transition opportunities. Those are not only easy points, but they also boost confidence.
Regardless, those are the Warriors’ realities for at least another night. And if the Timberwolves can be trusted to score more than 110 points, quite possibly closer to 120, then even Golden State’s putrid offense should not keep the game short of this total.
Pick #3: Timberwolves -10.5
Target Center has not seen the Timberwolves clinch a playoff series in 21 years. As exciting as it was for the Minnesota fanbase to watch the Wolves win Game 7 in Denver last year, it would have been a better experience for the fans to enjoy it in the second-oldest arena in the NBA.
(To save you any wonder, the oldest is Madison Square Garden.)
Including that win, Minnesota has covered the spread in all three of its clinching games in the last two seasons, and by an average of more than 10 points compared to bookmakers’ expectations.
Combine this young team’s pettiness — looking at you, Jaden McDaniels — with a starving home crowd, and this fourth quarter should look nothing like Game 3’s fourth that briefly turned a blowout into a tense affair.
Game 4 last year at Phoenix, closing seconds: Devin Booker attempts a layup for two meaningless points. Anthony Edwards blocks it. Jaden McDaniels talks some trash.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) May 14, 2025
Game 7 at Denver: Jaden McDaniels tries a highlight dunk. ... pic.twitter.com/qIawjJrbIo
Even with a hefty lead, the Timberwolves will not let up off the gas tonight, not until the Warriors very much do so.
As things currently stand, a win tonight would grant Minnesota at least four days off. They do not need to worry about resting stars.
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