Two beasts of the East do battle when the Brooklyn Nets visit the reigning conference champs, the Miami Heat, at American Airlines Arena Sunday afternoon.
Brooklyn is still missing star guard James Harden but is expected to have both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in Miami, which is why the Nets are 5.5-point NBA betting favorites in South Beach. That and a three-game losing slide from the Heat, who most recently lost to the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Nets vs. Heat on April 18.
Nets vs Heat odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBrooklyn landed on FanDuel's odds board as 5.5-point chalk Saturday evening and got out to -7 by this morning, but the line then plunged as low as -2.5. As of 1 p.m. ET, the Nets are -3 while taking 83 percent of tickets and 88 percent of money on the spread. The total moved from 222.5 to 224 to 223.5, with 81 percent of tickets/87 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNets at Heat betting preview
Injuries
Nets: James Harden G (Out), Chris Chiozza G (Out).
Heat: Jimmy Butler F (Out), Gabe Vincent G (Questionable), Victor Oladipo G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Heat.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Heat hit rock bottom with a loss at Minnesota on Friday and now switch gears from worst to first, welcoming the Nets to South Beach. Jimmy Butler called out his team following the loss to Minnesota, pointing to the lack of defensive intensity after giving up 119 points to the T-Wolves and 123 to the Denver Nuggets on April 14.
Brooklyn is not the team you want to see when sorting out your defensive shortcomings. The Nets steamrolled Minnesota 127-97 on April 13 and are coming off a 130-point performance in a victory over Charlotte on Friday, in which they boasted six players in double-figure scoring.
The Nets weren’t able to string together consistent efforts — at least not for NBA bettors — over the past month and a half, dealing with stars coming in and out of the lineup as well as introducing new faces to their offensive sets. However, with Harden out, this KD and Kyrie-led lineup has proved dominant when both talents are on the court.
Even if the Heat can dig deep on defense, they just don’t have the horses to run with Brooklyn at this point. Victor Oladipo is out with knee issues and Butler is as well, as he's been battling through an ankle injury. Tyler Herro hasn’t stepped up to fill those gaps, struggling to find his famed “bubble” form in April, scoring a collective 19 points over the past three games while shooting just 1 for 12 from beyond the arc in that span.
Brooklyn’s ultimate plan is to get to the postseason with Durant, Irving and Harden healthy but there are motivation spots along the way. This matchup with Miami is one of them.
PREDICTION: Brooklyn -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
While the Heat are fumbling for answers offensively, the Nets have an embarrassment of scoring riches—even with Harden in street clothes. On top of KD and Irving, Brooklyn is getting scary production from its role players, most notably Joe Harris and Landry Shamet.
The pair is a collective 40 for 85 from distance this month (47 percent) and averaging a combined 28.7 points per game in April—nearly a quarter of Brooklyn’s monthly offensive output. The drive-and-kick created by Irving and the defensive help Durant demands are giving this sharp-shooting combo plenty of open air to catch and shoot.
Miami is getting beaten up by the 3-ball this season, watching foes knock down an average of 14.5 triples per game (third-most in the NBA). Minnesota bagged 15 threes on 36 attempts in Friday’s win over the Heat and Denver dropped 17 of 36 from outside on Miami last Wednesday. Both finals went Over the total.
Brooklyn buried the Hornets under 21 3-pointers on Friday and has played Over the total in four of its last six outings.
PREDICTION: Over 225.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
We’ve already mentioned Harris’ contributions to the Nets’ offensive attack this month and will double down on a big day from the 6-foot-6 shooting guard.
Harris is averaging 14.8 points per game this month, knocking down 19 of 43 looks from beyond the arc. Those stats are bolstered by a pair of 20-point performances in two of the last three games: tallying 26 versus Charlotte and 23 against Minnesota.
In two meetings with Miami this season (a set of games in Brooklyn back in late January), Harris collected 12 and 23 points—both of which would have put him Over this player prop point total. As Miami focuses its defensive energy on KD and Kyrie, you can feel the heat coming off Harris Sunday afternoon.
PREDICTION: Joe Harris Over 11.5 points (-112)
Nets vs Heat betting card
- Brooklyn -5.5 (-110)
- Over 225.5 (-110)
- Joe Harris Over 11.5 points (-112)
Picks made on 4/18/2021 at 8:14 a.m. ET
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