The Utah Jazz will be hosting the Dallas Mavericks in the final game of Saturday’s Christmas Day slate. The Jazz have won 10 of their last 12 coming into this game, so they’ll have a great opportunity to stay hot against a Luka Doncic-less Mavericks team.
Will Dallas find a way to hang around against Utah? Keep reading our Mavericks vs. Jazz picks and predictions to find out.
Mavericks vs Jazz odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The spread on this game hasn’t moved much since open, as the Mavericks were getting 12.5 points and are still doing so at all but one prominent book. That one has Dallas getting 12. The total, which opened at 214, can be found between 213.5 and 214.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mavericks vs Jazz predictions
Predictions made on 12/24/2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mavericks vs Jazz game info
• Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
• Date: Saturday, December 25, 2021
• Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Mavericks vs Jazz betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Luka Doncic F (Out), Josh Green G (Out), Reggie Bullock G (Out), Maxi Kleber F (Doubtful), Tim Hardaway Jr. G (Out), Trey Burke G (Out), Kristaps Porzingis F (Questionable), Willie Cauley-Stein C (Questionable).
Jazz: Udoka Azubuike C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mavericks are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games versus teams with winning records. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Jazz.
Mavericks vs Jazz picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Mavericks won’t have Doncic in their Christmas Day game against the Jazz, and that’s going to completely crush Dallas’s chances of keeping up with Utah’s league-best offense. The Jazz have an offensive rating of 117.1 this season, and the second-best mark in the league is the Charlotte Hornets’ 112.7.
Considering Dallas is just 20th in the league in offensive rating to begin with, it’s hard to imagine the Mavericks finding a way to score enough to stay within striking range against the Jazz in a game without their best player — and one of the Top-5 offensive talents in the world.
Whereas Jalen Brunson has been able to keep this Mavericks team afloat recently, it’s hard to imagine that act holding up in Utah here. The Jazz have one of the better backcourts in basketball right now, where Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are both superb players. Brunson would likely need to outscore Mitchell in order for the Mavericks to have a chance in this one, and that’s just extremely unrealistic. Mitchell is one of the game’s best scoring guards, and Conley is a great defender. Also, with Conley being a lefty, he’ll know the tricks that come with Brunson being a southpaw.
Even if Kristaps Porzingis ends up playing in this game, it’s worth noting that he’ll have to deal with Rudy Gobert. The Jazz big man is plenty capable of shutting down the Mavericks forward, and that is another reason it’s hard to believe that the Mavs will keep this game close.
Prediction: Jazz -12 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Jazz are going to put up a decent number of points in this game, and they’re going to do so with some real efficiency. That’s just the reality of a league-best offense getting to go against the bottom of a Mavericks rotation that isn’t all that good to begin with. The only issue here is that blowouts tend to slow games down, and that’s exactly what should happen in this one. The Jazz will likely be winning this game by so much that the fourth quarter will turn into a drag.
The Under is also 33-13 when Dallas has played as an underdog over the last two seasons, and it’s also 20-8 when the Mavericks are coming off back-to-back games in which 205 or fewer points were scored in that span. When they start to play grind-it-out games, those performances tend to come in bunches.
Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110)
Best bet
For a team with an offense as mediocre as Dallas’s, the Mavericks aren’t anything special on the defensive end. Jason Kidd’s team is just 13th in the league in defensive rating this year, and that’s not going to be enough for the Mavericks to slow down this potent Jazz offense. Utah comes into this one after having scored at least 123 points in four of its last six games. The Jazz are more than capable of putting up a number like that one here, and the Mavericks aren’t going to be able to efficiently score on their own with so many key pieces out.
These teams are simply not in the same ballpark in terms of talent heading into this game, and the Jazz are also 19-8 against the spread in home games when coming off a home win over the last two seasons. Don’t be surprised if this is the most lopsided game on the Christmas Day slate.
Pick: Jazz -12 (-110)
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