Mavericks vs Jazz Game 6 Picks and Predictions: Luka Legend Rolls to Round 2

Luka Doncic ripped Utah's heart out in Game 5 on home floor with a barrage of shotmaking to put Dallas on the verge of Round 2. As the series swings back to Salt Lake City, our Mavericks vs. Jazz NBA betting picks expect Luka to finish the job.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 28, 2022 • 18:54 ET • 4 min read
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Mavericks have a shot to advance to the conference semifinals for the first time since their NBA title run in 2011 when they visit the Utah Jazz for Game 6 of their Round 1 NBA playoff series Thursday.

Luka Doncic has proven himself an All-Star, an MVP candidate, and a postseason performer, but does he have the killer instinct to close out this set on the road and avoid a Game 7? Bookmakers are split on that projection, with Dallas anywhere from a 1-point favorite to 1.5-point underdog tonight.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks at Jazz on April 28.

Mavericks vs Jazz odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

As mentioned, the market varies on this game. Dallas opened as a 1.5-point underdog but with Donovan Mitchell’s health a question mark, the line swung as high as Mavericks -2.5. Once Mitchell was cleared to play Thursday, that spread ticked all the way back as far as Dallas +1.5 but some shops are dealing the road side as 1-point chalk. The total opened at 210.5 points, slumped to 208.5 but is now back to 210 as of Thursday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Jazz predictions

Predictions made on 4/28/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Mavericks vs Jazz game info

Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Date: Thursday, April 28, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET

Mavericks vs Jazz series odds

Mavericks: -650
Jazz: +475

Mavericks vs Jazz betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: Tim Hardaway Jr. G (Out).
Jazz: Donovan Mitchell G (Probable), Trent Forrest G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Dallas is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games versus a team with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Jazz.

Mavericks vs Jazz picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Just how hurt is Donovan Mitchell? The Jazz’s star scorer limped off the floor in Game 5 holding his right leg, has battled bruises in both quads, and had an MRI between games on an injured hamstring. I’d say he’s pretty hurt.

Of course, with the season on the line and Utah coming off a rough 102-77 loss at Dallas, Mitchell is going to grit it out after having a couple days off. I bet the “Spida” wishes he truly had eight legs because the two he does have aren’t going to get the job done.

The Jazz need Mitchell to be explosive and aggressive in Game 6, kickstarting an offense that has been terribly stagnant in this series and looked dead in the water in Game 5. Instead to trying to beat defenders off the dribble and manifest anything positive by getting inside, Mitchell played passive and settled for jumpers when Utah desperately needed anything but.

Mitchell’s muted mobility adds to Utah’s other offensive issues, primarily Mike Conley going MIA in the series — averaging only 8.8 points on 27% shooting along with four assists – and one of the most dangerous 3-point attacks in the league having its teeth pulled to the tune of 27.8% shooting and a mere eight makes per game (after averaging 14.5 3-pointers in the regular season).

Compounding those scoring woes is the Mavericks’ slow-motion style of play. Dallas dominates games with its plodding pace, dragging this series into the depths with an overall pace rating of 91.1 – the slowest tempo of any Round 1 series. Just that tempo alone makes it very hard for opponents to get into a rhythm, especially a playbook like Utah’s which relies on feeding the hot hands.

I’d be very surprised if Mitchell makes it the whole game — let alone is effective on offense. If that’s the case, you’re asking a lot from the rest of a roster that hasn’t produced much beyond the energy reserve guard Jordan Clarkson brings each night. He should continue to see an uptick in minutes, but it won’t be enough, especially if Dallas starts making all those 3-pointers it’s taking.

Since going small ball in Game 2, the Mavs have launched a total of 176 shots from beyond the arc, connecting on 38% of those long-range looks. Dallas’ commitment to perimeter play has stretched Utah’s defense and rendered rim protector Rudy Gobert useless, watching his individual defensive rating balloon from 104.5 in the regular season to 118.3 in the past four games. Gobert, who averaged 2.1 blocks per game, has just one swat over the past three contests.

With the spread all over the place, shop around for the best number — regardless of which team you like to cover — but with little faith in Mitchell’s mobility and the Jazz’s support staff, I’m grabbing the Mavs to slam the door in Salt Lake City tonight.

Prediction: Mavericks +1.5 (-118 at 888Sport)

Over/Under analysis

After the first three games closed with low totals between 206 and 208.5 points, and the Jazz and Mavericks topped the number in Games 2 and 3, oddsmakers went high with Over/Under numbers of 215 and 212 the following two games. Following Utah’s 77-point poo in Game 5, the total opened 210.5, dropped to 208.5 with Mitchell up in the air, and has slid back up to that original number.

Even with Mitchell hobbled, the Jazz will account for that terrible effort on offense last time out. Clarkson could find himself at the wheel of the attack more often and Bojan Bogdanovic is much better than his collective 4-for-19 shooting the past two games (0 for 9 in Game 5). The Jazz are also a much better offensive inside Vivint Arena, where they rank second in home-court efficiency in the NBA.

The big X-factor is the 3-point volume from Dallas. The Mavericks made just 12 of 43 attempts from outside in Game 5, including a 10-for-33 showing from the starters. With the 25-point blowout, the Dallas bench played extra minutes, shooting just 2 for 10 from distance. 

With this contest expected to be a closer game (if the spread means anything), the Mavs' main rotation will take the bulk of those attempts and Doncic and Jalen Brunson will improve on their combined 4 for 17 nastiness from beyond the arc last time out.

Prediction: Over 209.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

I’ve almost been blind betting Overs on 3-pointers made for Mavericks players since that move to a smaller lineup in Game 2. It’s simply playing the percentages with Dallas launching an average of 44 3-point attempts in that span and making almost 17 triples per game.

The most consistent threat from deep for Dallas is forward Reggie Bullock, who is shooting close to 44% from the perimeter for the series and has made three or more triples in each and every game, including five in Game 1 before the Mavs went all-in on small ball. In fact, all but five of Bullock’s total 41 shots in the series have come from beyond the arc.

Bullock is responsible for 28 of the team’s total 176 long-range looks in the past five games (16%) and made 14 of the 67 total triples scored in that stretch (21%). He’s playing major minutes thanks to both that touch from outside and his strong defensive efforts and should log 40-plus minutes again in Game 6.

If the Mavs make their quota in terms of 3-point attempts in Utah, Bullock’s current clip has him at a projected 3.528 made triples tonight.

Pick: Reggie Bullock Over 2.5 3-pointers made (-120)

NBA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Mavericks vs. Jazz predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $54.66 on a $10 bet?

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