Magic vs Pelicans Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

The Orlando Magic have the tools to shut down the New Orleans Pelicans' Zion Williamson, and that's why our NBA betting picks are focusing on a Trey Murphy player prop in this must-have matchup for both sides.

Apr 3, 2024 • 16:06 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic will make the trip to the Smoothie King Center on Wednesday, as they take on Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find the best bet for this matchup.

There are only a handful of games left in the NBA season, and both the New Orleans Pelicans and Orlando Magic could really use a win on Wednesday. The Magic are trying to chase down the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, and the Pelicans are trying to avoid the Play-In Tournament in the Western Conference.

Find out which bet I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Magic vs. Pelicans on Wednesday, April 3.

Magic vs Pelicans predictions

My best bet: Trey Murphy Over 14.5 points (-105 at BetMGM)

The Orlando Magic and New Orleans Pelicans just played on March 21, and unfortunately, it was the game where Brandon Ingram injured his left knee. With Ingram out, the pressure has increased on Zion Williamson to not only score but create offense for other Pelicans players.

The problem for Williamson is that without Ingram in the lineup, teams are really clogging the lane against him, and we recently saw the Boston Celtics and the Phoenix Suns guard him a certain way. 

The Suns put Bradley Beal on Williamson, with Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic directly behind him already in help defense. It's an interesting strategy and one Williamson will definitely continue to see because the smaller guards have the foot speed to cut off Williamson. If he tries to bully his way to the rim, you have rim protection and a ton of size sitting behind the defender. Instead of a bigger defender initially guarding Williamson, he blows past because he's faster, and your help defender is a small guard who can't protect the rim once he has a full head of steam.

Williamson had a tough time against the Suns, and it could be even tougher on Wednesday against the Magic because they have positional size across the board. Imagine meeting Jonathan Isaac at the point of attack, and then Wendell Carter Jr. is standing behind him in help. Good luck.

My initial thought was to look at Williamson Under for his points, but the Under is only showing around a 2% positive expected value. The ricochet of Williamson being guarded like this is that he needs his shooters to help space the floor for him. That's why I'm going after the Trey Murphy odds on his points prop on Wednesday. The Pelicans will need his offense and how he scores his points in order for their offense to flow. The field goal attempts and minutes should be there for Murphy because of the matchup.

Murphy is projected to score 16.9 points on Wednesday against the Magic, which allows us to price the Over 14.5 points at -158, but it is available at BetMGM at -105.

Magic vs Pelicans same-game parlay

Trey Murphy Over 14.5 points

Trey Murphy Over 2.5 made 3s

Zion Williamson Under 26.5 points

I talked about Murphy's ability to space the floor for Williamson in our best bet, and it's why I'm pairing Murphy to make Over 2.5 threes with the Over on his points prop. Murphy is going to be asked to shoot triples to help space the floor against the Magic. If he is going Over the 14.5 points on his points prop, I'd be stunned if it isn't because he made more than 2.5 treys. These bets are very correlated, and it shows in the multiplier when you put them together.

I just don't see Williamson getting Over the number of 26.5 points against this Magic defense. He is going to have to rely on his shooters on Wednesday to help him with the offensive workload and create spacing. Williamson could still score 20 points, but at 26.5, I think you can play the Under on this number.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Magic vs Pelicans odds and trends

Magic vs Pelicans live odds

Magic vs Pelicans opening odds

  • Spread: Orlando +4 (-110) | New Orleans -4 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Orlando (+144) | New Orleans (-172)
  • Over/Under: Over 209 (-110) | Under 209 (-110)

Magic vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The spread opened at Pelicans -4 at FanDuel, and we have seen it drop to as low as Pelicans -3.5 and also move as high as Pelicans -5. 
  • Despite the spread moving both towards the Pelicans and Magic at some point, it continues to find its way back to the opener of Pelicans -4, which is very telling for where you should see this number close. 
  • The total opened at FanDuel at 209, and we have seen it drop by one point towards the Under as it is now trading at 208.

Magic vs Pelicans trend

The Magic have hit the 1Q Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Pelicans.

Magic vs Pelicans game info

Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Date: Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports New Orleans, Bally Sports Florida

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