Lakers vs Clippers Picks and Predictions: Clippers Won't Get Caught Looking Ahead

The tail end of the NBA schedule is often known for one-sided spreads and mismatches in motivation, which can lead to some real stinkers. But basketball bettors could get a treat tonight. Or maybe not.

The Los Angeles Lakers take on the rival Los Angeles Clippers, with plenty on the line for both teams as the regular season wraps up this week. But the Lakers may have other plans on Wednesday.

The Lakers are right on the heels of their L.A. rival in seventh place after an overtime win at Utah last night. The Purple and Gold have won four straight games and seven of their last eight (5-3 ATS), but the status of stars LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and D’Angelo Russell are up in the air in this second of back-to-back outings.

The Clippers are “home” favorites in Crypto.com Arena with a decisive rest edge, having last played on Saturday. They’re trying to stay in the Top 6 in the Western Conference and avoid participating in the play-in tournament. 

I do my best to tackle the spread and total (which will likely bounce all over the place with official injury updates) for Wednesday’s war in La-La Land and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Lakers at Clippers on April 5.

Lakers vs Clippers best odds

Lakers vs Clippers picks and predictions

From what we’ve heard from the two coaches, the Lakers are thinking “long term,” and the Clippers are preparing for a “meaningful” game with “a lot at stake.”

The notable market move for this rivalry reflects those mixed motivations, with the Clippers moving as many as 3.5 points off the opening odds (-1.5 to as high as -5, depending on where you bet). 

We also know who the Clips will have in action, with Kawhi Leonard leading the charge and a vengeful Russell Westbrook playing against his former franchise. The team is clinging to the No. 6 spot in the West, and dropping a game to the Lakers could doom the Clippers to the play-in tournament — a dire situation for a team as spotty as the Clips.

Tonight’s personnel isn’t clear on the other sideline, where the Lakers could potentially bench LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the second game of back-to-backs and give D’Angelo Russell’s bum foot another night off after sitting out Tuesday.

The Clippers also hold a sizable rest advantage, having last played on Saturday. The Lakers are coming from an overtime outing in the energy-sapping thin air of Salt Lake City, and playing the role of visitor in their own arena 24 hours later.

Should Davis and James sit out, the Lakers shrink considerably in output and size, and would be reaching down the bench on the second of back-to-back games.

The last time the Lakers were without both of those frontcourt staples, the starting five featured 6-foot-9 Jarred Vanderbilt at center in a 114-110 loss to the Houston Rockets on March 15. Houston outrebounded the short-handed Lakers 51-36 and scored 78 points in the paint. 

The Clippers’ offense could take advantage of those missing pieces, and has been the one consistent aspect of this team since the All-Star break. Even with Paul George going down, Los Angeles has been able to produce points in his absence, and has done so against tougher defensive competition.

The Clippers opened as 1.5-point favorites for this game with the Lakers’ stars in play, so books still think they’re the winning side whether James, AD, and Russell suit up. I’ll bite on the Clips -4 knowing their motivations, active players, and rest edge.

My best bet: Clippers -4 (-107 at Pinnacle)

Lakers vs Clippers spread analysis

As it stands right now (11 a.m. ET), the Clippers opened as low as 1.5-point favorites following the Lakers’ overtime affair with Utah, and that spread has since shot up as high as -5 with some buyback at that stop trimming the spread to a market consensus of Clips -4.5.

That movement is all about the unknown status of the Lakers’ stars in James, Davis, and Russell. The Lakers were hefty favorites in Salt Lake City last night, and the team was hoping to put the Jazz away early and rest some starters (Russell sat out), but Utah had other plans and forced a close game and an added period.

"We have our short-term business that we need to take care of and our long-term business that we need to take care of," Lakers head coach Darvin Ham told the media after the OT win. "We prioritize a player's health, first and foremost. Regardless of what the stakes are or the implications of with a win or a loss or all of that. We need our players to know that we care about their health, first and foremost."

So, there’s that.

The importance of tonight’s game isn’t lost on the Lakers, who would love nothing more than to avoid the added work of the play-in and would relish a chance to rest up before the start of the postseason. But that massive market move tells us that early-bird bettors expect the Purple and Gold to rest their standouts — or at least some of them.

The Clippers need this game just as much, as they’ve slipped in the standings with back-to-back losses at New Orleans and Memphis, and are 3-4 SU and ATS in their last seven contests. Clippers coach Tyronn Lue had a different approach to Wednesday’s matchup with the Lakers than Ham.

“This is probably the first meaningful game we’ve played against them,” Lue told reporters. “A lot’s at stake right now.”

It sounds like whatever lineup the Lakers roll out tonight, the Clippers are coming for them. The significant adjustment to LAC -4.5 is warranted, at least based on motivation.

Lakers vs Clippers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for this Battle for Los Angeles has also bounced around since hitting the board. Some shops opened as low as 228.5 points, with the total jumping to as high as 232 points. 

The new-look Lakers have been one of the better defensive clubs since swapping out their roster at the trade deadline, allowing less than 112 points against, with a league-best defensive rating of 110.8 in the 23 games with this rotation. 

Possibly sitting Davis and James takes plenty of teeth out of that defense and makes the Lakers very small in the frontcourt, as well as erases their biggest presence on the glass. 

The Lakers have seen a surge in scoring the past seven games, with Davis, James and Russell reuniting at times after injuries limited their work together. Los Angeles has poured in 122.8 points per game in that span, which is a significant uptick in output from the previous 17 contests. The Lakers are 6-1 O/U in those seven games.

As for the Clippers, inconsistent efforts on defense remain their biggest boogeyman. The “other” L.A. team is allowing almost 116 points against over the past seven outings, which has led to a 5-2 Over/Under count in that span. 

The Clips have countered that with solid scoring, despite losing George. In the six games with PG sidelined, L.A. has averaged 118.3 points. They have faced some stout defenses along the way, matching up with New Orleans (twice), Memphis (twice), and Chicago.

The Clippers enter Wednesday as the best Under bet in the NBA on their home court at 12-27 O/U, but face a Lakers defense that could be missing key part and running quite small if those stars sit out.

Lakers vs Clippers betting trend to know

The Clippers are 38-17 ATS (69%) in the last 55 chapters of this L.A. rivalry. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Clippers.

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