Big Apple basketball fans are dealing with the “Brunson Conundrum” as the New York Knicks face elimination in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals tonight.
Brunson is averaging more than 33 points in the series but his “ball dominant” dependency is making the Knicks’ offensive schemes stale and easy to counter. Even Brunson himself has said he needs to involve in teammates more.
With that in mind I looked to Jalen Brunson's odds surrounding his assist market and decided to target it in my NBA picks for May 29.
Jalen Brunson player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jalen Brunson best bet
Over 6.5 assists (-135 at bet365)
Heading into Game 4, there was already a lot of chatter about how Brunson’s need to have the ball in his hands was making the New York Knicks' attack stagnant. He admitted as much as for what it’s worth,
Brunson did do a better job setting up his teammates in Tuesday’s loss. After averaging 9.0 potential assists through the first three games of the ECF — posting five, 11 and one assist totals in those contests — his advanced stats showed 15.0 potential assists in Game 4.
However, the Knicks couldn’t cash in those opportunities, and Brunson finished with five dimes over 37 minutes of play — staying Under his closing assist total of 6.5 O/U.
For the series, Brunson assist total has bounced between 6.5 and 7.5 with vig swinging between the Over and Under. Before facing the Indiana Pacers’ aggressive defense, Brunson dished out seven or more dimes in all six games vs. Detroit and in three of the six games with Boston.
With the return to Madison Square Garden, the Knicks should benefit from better shooting. This team ranks fourth in homecourt field goal percentage on the year (48.9%) and there are a few New York role players who see decisive splits in their home/away production (looking at you Mikal Bridges).
The Game 5 assist prop markets have been on the move since opening, with bookies leading off with 6.5 (Over -137). The juice on the Over grew until some shops added an extra dime (Under 7.5 -160) but this prop has settled in at 6.5 O/U across the industry.
Some sharper operators are as high as Over 6.5 -150 on game day, but you can shop around for a less expensive ask on the same result.
Player projections are confident Brunson can dish out seven or more assists. Game models range from 6.9 to 7.9 helpers and my number is at 7.5 assists, recognizing his jump in potential assists last time out and the need to move the ball to teammates.
Given that projection, the Over 6.5 should carry a price tag around -156.
Jalen Brunson same-game parlay
7+ assists
25+ points
Knicks moneyline
Brunson’s potential assists jumped from 9.0 in the first three games of the ECF to 15.0 in Game 4. Projections call for seven or more dimes in Game 5.
Brunson still needs to shoulder the scoring load and his forecast all come in at 25 points or higher tonight.
The Knicks will live to fight another day. Maybe it’s the tinfoil hat talking, but the league would like to squeeze as many games as the can out of NYC before an Indiana-OKC final.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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