The last time a team erased a 3-1 deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals, a lanky forward from French Lick named Larry Bird was leading the charge — and the Celtics rode that momentum to a championship.
Now, 44 years later, the New York Knicks are looking to replicate that rare feat when they host the Indiana Pacers in a must-win Game 5 at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night.
If the Knicks want to extend their season, their top talent has to deliver under the bright lights of MSG. And that’s exactly where I’m putting my money.
My Pacers vs. Knicks predictions are counting on one of the biggest and brightest stars for the Knicks to make an impact, with my best NBA picks leaning into Karl-Anthony Towns on May 29.
Who will win Pacers vs Knicks Game 5
With the season on life support, the Knicks are 5-point favorites at MSG, and oddsmakers are giving New York the nod with an implied win probability of 67% on Thursday night.
I’ll bite, taking the Knicks to live to see another day. It’s in the best interest of the league to have New York stick around as long as it can, considering the NBA is likely looking at a small-market finals that few will care about.
Prediction: Knicks will win Game 5.
Pacers vs Knicks prediction
My best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns 20+ points & 10+ rebounds (+110 at bet365)
Karl-Anthony Towns has gone for at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in three of the first four games of the series.
The only blip was Game 2 when, for some ungodly reason, New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau opted to sit KAT and limit him to just 28 minutes. He still finished with 20 points and seven boards in the losing effort.
Towns has been fantastic against the Indiana Pacers, averaging almost 26 points on 52% shooting — including a 45.5% touch from beyond the arc — while smashing the glass for 11.5 boards an outing fueled by an average of 18.0 rebounding chances (second most in Round 3).
He did give New Yorkers a scare in Game 4, banging knees with Indiana’s Aaron Nesmith late in the fourth quarter. Towns stayed in the game despite being obviously hobbled, and he dodged inquiries about his health in the postgame press conference.
“He was able to go back in, so that’s a good sign," Thibodeau told the media when asked about Town’s injury. "We’ll see where he is after he gets evaluated.”
That tender knee could be cause for pause on any KAT Overs, but the betting market isn’t scared off his Game 5 production.
Examining the line movement at sharper sportsbooks — which is often a forerunner for a player’s status — both Towns’ points total and rebounds total have jumped, with early action on the Over. His scoring climbed from 20.5 (Over -110) to 21.5 points (Over -119), and his rebounding number increased from 10.5 (Over -140) to 11.5 (Over -116).
With those respected opinions signing off on KAT’s health and Game 5 projections calling for 22-plus points and as many as 14 rebounds, I’m combining his milestone markets at bet365 and taking Towns to score 20+ points and grab 10+ rebounds at +110.
Pacers vs Knicks same-game parlay
Karl-Anthony Towns 20+ points
Karl-Anthony Towns 10+ rebounds
Josh Hart 10+ points
Josh Hart 7+ rebounds
Towns has scored at least 20 points in each game of the ECF and is projected for as many as 23.5 points in Game 5.
KAT is a beast on the boards, with his models showing as many as 14 rebounds expected Thursday.
Josh Hart is coming off the bench but playing starter's minutes. He finally cracked double figures in this series in Game 4 and has been aggressive getting to the foul line for freebies.
The only player in this round of the playoffs generating more rebounding chances than Towns is Hart. His advanced metrics average 18.3 potential boards, and he’s grabbed 10 or more in three of the first four games.
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Pacers vs Knicks odds
Pacers vs Knicks live odds
Pacers vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Indiana -5 | New York +5
- Moneyline: Indiana +170 | New York -205
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 (-110) | Under 223.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
• With Indiana putting New York on the ropes, oddsmakers opened the Knicks as 5-point home chalk. That spread has bounced between the opener and -4.5, with some action on the underdog Pacers in Game 5.
• The Over/Under total hit the board at 223.5 points and dropped a full point to 222.5, with initial play on the Under. The series has been split at 2-2 O/U.
• According to Covers Consensus data, 62% of picks are gladly taking the points with the Pacers in Game 5, while 68% of picks are on the Over.
Pacers vs Knicks trend
New York is 27-10 SU and 22-15 ATS at home when coming off a loss in the previous game, including a 5-1 SU/ATS count in those scenarios during the playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Knicks.
Pacers vs Knicks betting resources
- Pacers vs. Knicks props & best bets
- Pacers vs. Knicks same-game parlay
- Pacers vs. Knicks first basket picks
- Jalen Brunson picks
- Tyrese Haliburton picks
How to watch Pacers vs Knicks
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 5-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, max |
Pacers vs Knicks latest injuries
Bettors, take note: Karl-Anthony Towns is officially listed as day-to-day for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals as he continues to deal with a left knee contusion. The Knicks star was clearly hobbled late in Game 4 after a hard collision with Pacers center Myles Turner, and it's the second time in recent games he's banged up the same knee.
While Towns gutted it out down the stretch last time, his mobility looked limited — and with a short turnaround before tonight’s critical showdown, his status is up in the air. Although KAT is unlikely to sit out, his potentially compromised play could have major implications for both the spread and prop markets.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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