Home cooking has done well for the Toronto Raptors lately, as they've won eight out of their last nine home games to climb within a game of the .500 mark for the season. With a win tonight against the visiting Miami Heat, Toronto can pull within striking distance of the all-important sixth seed in the Eastern Conference.
Miami currently sits in seventh in the East and can pass Brooklyn in the standings with a win tonight. However, the Heat have been playing really inconsistent ball since coming out of the All-Star break and are 3-point underdogs heading into tonight's contest.
I break down this Eastern Conference clash and bring you my best bet in our free NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Raptors on March 28.
Heat vs Raptors best odds
Heat vs Raptors picks and predictions
The Toronto Raptors are playing well at home right now, boasting an 8-1 straight up record and 7-1-1 against the spread mark in their last nine games at Scotiabank Arena. Unfortunately, the only notable win in that stretch came against Denver back on March 14.
While the Raps rank eighth in defensive rating since the All-Star break, they might be seeing some inflated numbers thanks to going up against weaker competition.
And even though that defense has improved, Toronto still struggles to defend shooters from the perimeter. That’s partly due to the Raptors' aggressive and trap style of defense, which means a smart team can swing the ball around the perimeter and eventually find an open man.
Today, I’m betting that the open man will be without Miami Heat power forward Kevin Love. Love has spent many years torching the Raptors as a member of the Cavaliers and tonight’s matchup sets up nicely for that to continue.
After a bit of a slow start to his Heat career, Love has started to find his shooting rhythm. The former All-Star is hitting a solid 37.5% of his 3-point attempts over his last six games, draining two or more treys five times over that six-game stretch.
You can expect Love to set up in the corner a few times in this one and take advantage of that aggressive Raptors defense. I’m backing him to go Over 1.5 made threes tonight at a solid price.
My best bet: Kevin Love Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+112)
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Heat vs Raptors spread analysis
The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference matchup as 2.5-point favorites, and have been bet up to -3.5 as of early Tuesday afternoon. However, this may be giving a little too much respect to the Raps.
While Toronto has won eight of its last nine at home, only one of those wins came against a notable opponent. It also includes a game where the Raps lost outright as 8.5-point favorites and lost against a Pacers team missing Tyrese Haliburton.
And now they are going against a Heat team that always plays them tough.
The other reason for this line may be because the Heat have been playing inconsistent basketball since coming out of the All-Star break. In fact, this usually stout defense ranks just 25th in efficiency since the February break.
But at its core, this is a solid defensive team and a matchup against the Raptors could help them get back on track. Even though the Raps have been winning games at home, the half-court offense is still a problem. The team still ranks 21st in offensive rating and 28th in effective field goal percentage post-All-Star break.
The Heat come into this game well-rested and mostly healthy. Miami hasn’t played since Saturday in an embarrassing 129-120 loss to the Nets, and a second consecutive poor performance feels unlikely with veteran head coach Erik Spoelstra calling the shots.
Despite Miami's issues covering spreads of late, I would lean toward taking the points with the Heat here in what should be a tight game.
Heat vs Raptors Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 219 and the early money has come in on the Over, bumping the number up to 220.
But when the Heat and Raptors face off, I instinctively think Under.
These teams have played three times this season, and two of those games fell below this number, while the “high-scoring” affair landed at 221.
The Heat may be struggling on defense, but the Raps aren’t exactly the team to take advantage of that as they rank just 21st in ppg.
The Heat and Raps are also two of the slowest teams in the NBA. Miami ranks 26th in pace and the Raptors come in at 24th, so I have a strong lean toward the Under in this one.
Heat vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in Miami's last five road games and 3-1 in Toronto's last four games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Raptors.
Heat vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 28, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, TSN |
Heat vs Raptors key injuries
