Just 14 players have earned NBA MVP honors and won an NBA Championship in the same season. Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wants to be No. 15.
Gilgeous-Alexander and OKC host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night, and while SGA’s offensive efforts are what secured his title as “Most Valuable Player”, it’s his defense that could be the difference in this series.
I’m looking at Gilgeous-Alexander’s ball-hawking ways with my best NBA picks and predictions for the Pacers at the Thunder on June 5.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
- Best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Steals
(-120) - SGP pick
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Steals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ 3-Pointers
Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline
(+260)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Steals (-120 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 1.6 steals per game in the playoffs, but made a difference on defense in the Western Conference finals.
He recorded two or more steals in three of the five games against the Minnesota Timberwolves and has posted at least two swipes in 10 of his 16 playoff contests heading into the Finals.
Those results came against foes who passed the ball at a higher rate than most, with Minnesota, Denver, and Memphis averaging between 273 and 283.5 passes per game in the NBA Playoffs. The Indiana Pacers, however, are a different beast when it comes to ball movement.
The Pacers’ offensive trademark is a frenetic passing scheme that does not allow the defense a chance to catch its breath. Indiana is averaging 314.3 passes per game in the postseason, thriving on cutting and passing to shift the defense and create open looks.
Considering the amount of passing involved, Indiana does an incredible job of limiting its mistakes. For the playoffs, the Pacers turn the ball over only 12.7 times per outing, along with 7.4 steals allowed.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, on the other hand, presents the biggest threat to the pass-happy Pacers.
The Thunder are a team that loves to jump the passing lanes – anchored in SGA’s tremendous off-the-ball defending – and is generating 18.0 turnovers and 10.8 steals per playoff game. The spike in opponent passing in this series provides a natural cause to think that the Thunder’s forced turnovers and steals should also increase.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s player projections sit at 1.7 steals for Game 1, and my number is closer to 2.0, considering the Thunder will have ample film room and practice sessions to scout the Pacers’ playbook and find opportunities to clog up the works.
This prop market opened as short as 0.5 (Over -210) and quickly jumped to 1.5 (Over +124) at some books. It has since surged toward the Over, with this result now offering odds as low as -135. But you can find Over 1.5 steals for SGA -120 at bet365.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Steals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ 3-Pointers
Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline
With passing at a peak in this Pacers attack, SGA’s chances for steals go up, and my projection has him close to two swipes in Game 1.
Gilgeous-Alexander has hit at least two triples in three straight games and has made two or more from long range in five of his last seven playoff outings. Projections call for two makes from the 3-point range.
It’s a tall spread for OKC, considering the Pacers keep defying the odds. NBA Finals favorites of -9 or higher are 7-1 straight up (SU) since 2010, but just 4-4 against the spread (ATS). We’ll stick to the outright odds in Game 1.
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