At this point in the Indiana Pacers’ postseason run, should we really be surprised by how they stunned the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the NBA Finals?
Indiana once again yanked victory from the gullet of defeat, rallying from as many as 15 points down and somehow closing a nine-point gap in the final 2:52 to strike first with a 111-110 road win.
A big part of that series-opening win was forward Pascal Siakam, who packed the box score with 19 points and 10 rebounds.
I’m predicting another stellar showing in Game 2 on Sunday, with my best Pacers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA Picks on June 7.
Who will win Pacers vs Thunder Game 2?
After closing as 10-point home chalk in Game 1, books have come back with an 11-point spread for Oklahoma City in Game 2. It’s padding the public perception that OKC will rally after giving away the opener.
While I’m not rushing to bet against the Pacers and all those points anytime soon, I do expect the Thunder to win this outright.
Pacers vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Pascal Siakam SGP 15+ Points/7+ Rebounds (+140 at bet365)
I was smart enough to back Pascal Siakam to go Over his rebounding total of 6.5 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, collecting an easy plus-money winner with the Indiana Pacers’ forward snatching 10 boards Thursday.
Entering the championship round, Siakam’s rebounding results had taken a dip after a tough pairing with former teammate OG Anunoby in the Eastern Conference finals. He topped out at six rebounds and averaged only 5.0 boards against the New York Knicks.
But looking up and down this Oklahoma City Thunder roster, there’s no one who really counters the speed, size, and ability Siakam brings to the floor. The Thunder can either throw smaller guards at him or lumbering 7-footers, opting to go with 6-foot-5 guards Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso for the bulk of matchup minutes.
The 6-foot-8 Siakam exploited those mismatches in Game 1. He shot 7 for 15 from the floor and pulled down four of his 10 boards on the offensive end, leading to seven second-chance points. Advanced metrics show Siakam had 15.0 rebounding chances against OKC on Thursday.
Siakam has been a steady offensive outlet for Indiana in the postseason. He’s scored 15 points or more in 10 straight contests and in 14 of the team’s 17 tournament games. He’s averaging just shy of 21 points on 53.3% shooting in the playoffs.
The early Game 2 projections call for just over 19 points and the rebounding models range from 7.3 to as high as 8.6. His rebounding Over/Under is at 6.5 and sharper books immediately drew action on the Over for Game 2, surging the vig to as high as -144. His scoring total sits at 18.5 O/U with stops at 19.5 O/U in market movement.
I’m going to combo his milestone markets in a same game parlay and take his 15+ points and 7+ rebounds. This SGP is as short as +118 at some shops but you can find the same result at +140 at bet365.
Pacers vs Thunder same-game parlay
Siakam 15+ Points
Siakam 7+ Rebounds
Pacers +10.5
Siakam has scored at least 15 points in 14 of the Pacers’ 17 playoff games and has a mismatch advantage against the Thunder.
Siakam’s advanced stats showed 15.0 rebounding chances in Game 1, leading to 10 boards. He’s drawing small defenders and can crash the clash for offensive rebounds.
It really feels like the market is undervaluing Indiana. The Pacers hang around and refuse to quit, which makes all these points a gift with this gritty team.
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Pacers vs Thunder odds
Pacers vs Thunder live odds
Pacers vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +9.5 (-115) | Oklahoma City -9.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Indiana (+320) | Oklahoma City (-425)
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 (-110) | Under 230.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
• After losing Game 1 in heartbreaking fashion, bookies expect OKC to come back with vengeance in Game 2. They opened the Thunder as 11-point home favorites, which would currently be the third biggest spread for an NBA Finals game since 2004.
• The Game 2 total hit the board at 227.5 points and jumped to 228 with early play on the Over. Game 1 finished 221 combined points, staying Under the closing number of 229.5 O/U.
• According to Covers Consensus early data, 72% of picks are taking all those points with the Pacers while 60% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Pacers vs Thunder trend
Since 2004, there have been only four teams favored by -10 or higher in the NBA Finals (including OKC in Game 1). Those big faves are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Thunder.
How to watch Pacers vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Sunday, 6-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Pacers vs Thunder latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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