It’s déjà vu all over again as the Golden State Warriors are back in the NBA Finals for the sixth time in eight years. The Dubs advanced to the league’s championship round by making quick work of Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, whom they defeated in just five games in the Western Conference Finals. The outcome of the series was never in doubt, as the Warriors easily outscored the Mavs by 8.6 points per game.
Golden State will now face the battle-tested Boston Celtics, who scratched and clawed their way to a gritty Game 7 victory over the Miami Heat on Sunday. It was the second close call for Ime Udoka’s crew, who also needed seven games — and a little bit of luck — to polish off the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Boston will have a chance to hoist the franchise’s 18th title banner, but it won’t be easy. Oddsmakers at BetMGM have installed the Celtics as sizeable +130 underdogs in the best-of-seven series, according to the latest NBA Finals odds.
We asked our in-house NBA experts how they think the 2022 NBA Finals will unfold, and they didn’t hold back. Check out their free NBA picks and analysis below!
2022 NBA Finals staff picks
| Writer | Pick (odds) |
|---|---|
| Rory Breasail | Warriors in 6 (+400) |
| Andrew Caley | Warriors in 7 (+400) |
| Jason Logan | Warriors in 5 (+450) |
| Ryan Murphy | Warriors in 6 (+400) |
| Rohit Ponnaiya | Celtics in 7 (+600) |
| AJ Salah | Warriors in 7 (+400) |
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of May 31, 2022.
Rory Breasail: Warriors in 6 (+400)
If the Warriors win Game 1 and continue their NBA record 26-series streak of winning at least one road game, both of which I expect them to do, the math gets awfully difficult for Boston. Golden State is also 9-0 at Chase Center in these playoffs, having outscored opponents by 121 points at home. Boston’s home court has not been nearly as formidable by comparison. The Celtics have not had to defend an offense that is both this talented and cohesive at any point in the playoffs, and an early series lead for the Warriors will ultimately be too much to overcome.
Andrew Caley: Warriors in 7 (+400)
I’m not going to lie: the value is with the Celtics in the Finals. They’ve been the best team in the NBA since January, but if there is a team that can match the C’s defensive intensity and depth... it’s the Dubs.
While the Celtics' defense has been top notch, they haven’t played an offense in the playoffs that is as well-tuned, full of shooters, and in sync with each other as the Warriors. Additionally, the Warriors come into this series more rested and with the better-looking injury report. And, of course, they have that championship pedigree.
On top of that, Steph, Klay, and Draymond all know what winning another championship, particularly after the departure of KD, will mean for their legacy — both personally and for the franchise. It will be a battle, but I see the Dubs getting the job done.
Jason Logan: Warriors in 5 (+450 )
It seems like everyone is picking the Warriors in six games, so I’ll do you one better. It’s not too far-fetched to see Golden State win both games in San Francisco and be happy with a split when the series swings to Boston, then closing it out at home in Game 5.
The Celtics have some key defensive stoppers being held together by duct tape and the collective prayers of the Irish Catholic community. Golden State’s offensive depth won’t give Boston a break and the probable return of defenders Payton, Porter, and Iguodala allows Kerr to roll out different looks.
The Celtics need Tatum and Brown to be at their very best every game, while the Warriors can get by with a bad night from Curry or Klay. Folks forget how dangerous this Dubs defense is, and it gives Golden State multiple ways to win.
Ryan Murphy: Warriors in 6 (+400)
There’s a scene in The A-Team where Hannibal says, “Give me a minute, I’m good. Give me an hour, I’m great. Give me six months, I’m unbeatable.”
I feel the same way about the Warriors.
Although Golden State doesn’t have the luxury of a half-year layoff, they will have had seven days off from when they dispatched the Mavericks on May 26 to Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday. That’s a HUGE advantage for an aging team whose top three stars are all on the wrong side of 30.
That extra bit of downtime could also allow for the returns of Gary Payton II and former Finals MVP Andre Iguodala, both of whom missed the entirety of the Western Conference Finals. Give the Warriors a full week of rest and reinforcements and they truly are unbeatable.
Rohit Ponnaiya: Celtics in 7 (+600)
Although Golden State's offensive firepower will be very tough for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to match, Boston's elite defense gives it a better chance of winning the title than oddsmakers seem to think. The Celtics have beaten tougher opposition in the postseason by eliminating the Nets, Bucks, and Heat while the Warriors faced a pair of one-man shows in the Nuggets and Mavericks and were pushed to six games by a Memphis squad missing its best player for half the series.
The Celtics still have a better playoff net rating than the Dubs (+6.7 to +5.1) and their regular season net rating of +12.7 since the start of the new year was almost five points higher than second-place Phoenix.
People might be sleeping on a Boston squad that has been the best team in the league since January, which makes the +600 payout for the Celtics to win in seven games extremely tempting.
AJ Salah: Warriors in 7 (+400)
Neither of these teams has played their best ball consistently in these playoffs, but the Warriors have the higher upside, better two-way play, deeper rotation, and the experience of having been here before.
As tough as Boston's defense is, Golden State has enough perimeter weapons to test it, and the Celtics have shot themselves in the foot enough times in Rounds 2-3 — their margin for error here will be close to nil.
This series should be a back-and-forth war, but I’m giving Golden State a slight edge. Maybe I'm being naively optimistic, but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see this go seven.
