For all his late-game heroics, Jalen Brunson has a notable blemish on his NBA Finals resume.
The New York Knicks guard has committed as many turnovers (13) as he has recorded assists through three games with the San Antonio Spurs.
His five miscues in Game 3 played a big role in New York’s loss, and were also why Brunson finished Under his assist prop for the fifth straight game.
My Spurs vs. Knicks predictions take note of the Jalen Brunson odds and a dropping assist total, tempting my NBA picks to take the Over 5.5 dimes with Brunson focused on cleaning up his sloppy play on June 10.
Jalen Brunson prop pick for Game 4
Jalen Brunson best bet: Over 5.5 assists (-155 at bet365)
Jalen Brunson wrapped up Game 3 with five assists on nine potential helpers, but the table was set for more dimes in the second half. His turnovers as well as ice-cold shooting from the rest of the New York Knicks soured those set-ups.
The San Antonio Spurs have dialed up the pressure on Brunson, picking him up sooner in the halfcourt and playing tighter on-ball defense while showing double teams at times. They’re packing the paint when Brunson drives, leaving open hands on the outside for kickouts.
Brunson also has a bad habit of dribbling away seconds on the shot clock, leading to a bad look — either from him or off a hurried pass — as the clock ticks down.
Those troubles and a lack of playmaking wasn’t lost on Brunson after the Game 3 loss, pinpointing his play when asked about what the Knicks offense needs to correct in Game 4.
“Most importantly, not turn the ball over. Give my team an opportunity,” Brunson told the media.
New York head coach Mike Brown is preaching more activity from his entire team heading into Game 4, asking for sharper off-ball action and aggressive cuts. That means less useless dribbling from the point guard and better situational shooting from the team overall.
With Brunson getting a ton of touches and limiting his mistakes, the opportunities that evaporated on Monday will be there tonight.
He’s averaging nine potential assists for the series, panning out to 4.3 actual dimes. His assist prop has slid to 5.5 Over/Under but Game 4 projections still all sit north of six helpers, ranging from 6.4 to a ceiling of 7.2.
My number comes out to 6.8 assists from Brunson, which should have the Over 5.5 priced around -190, which makes the vig easier to swallow. You can find this prop result as short as -140, while some books have gone to 6.5 O/U.
Jalen Brunson same-game parlay
The Knicks were playing with a lot of outside pressure in Game 3, beyond just winning an NBA Finals game. Their winning streak and a packed Madison Square Garden (with Donald Trump in attendance) piled on the loss.
Game 4 comes with less baggage.
New York’s issues Monday were self-inflicted, with turnovers sparking the Spurs transition attack. The Knicks have a focus on playing cleaner with better offensive activity, forcing San Antonio into halfcourt sets.
Brunson got a good look at the Game 3 film and I expect the Knicks’ point guard to be more active as a facilitator, not just finding his teammates but putting them in better situations to shoot the basketball. His potential assists are at 9.0 but with less turnovers and more off-ball action, that metric ticks up and gets him Over his assist total for the first time in six games.
Projections all call for six or more assists.
Brown’s call for more action on offense was pointed at Karl-Anthony Towns, who couldn’t get into a flow in Game 3. He passed up shots and was also passed up on passes. Towns is drawing smaller defenders and will utilize his size to attack and shoot over the top.
His game models all sit above 18 points with most at 20+ points in Game 4.
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