Somewhere around midseason, the Boston Celtics put things together and took off, never looking back. They have held their own against contenders and pretenders alike, which should remove some wonder tonight at Denver. The Nuggets alternate between looking like contenders and pretenders, always led by Nikola Jokic. They are dangerously close to falling into the Western Conference play-in, a possibility that may spark them tonight.
Here are our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Celtics at the Nuggets on March 20, with tip set for 8:00 ET.
Celtics vs Nuggets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Celtics opened as 3-point favorites Saturday night, a number that did not move overnight but did jump to -3.5 early Sunday morning before correcting course to -2.5 by midmorning. The total opened at 221.5 before ticking up to 222.5 by morning. It then fell back to 221.5 by the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Celtics vs Nuggets predictions
Predictions made on 3/20/2022 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Celtics vs Nuggets game info
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Sunday, March 20, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-BOS, ALT
Celtics vs Nuggets betting preview
Key injuries
Celtics: Aaron Nesmith SG (Out).
Nuggets: Zeke Nnaji PF (Out), Michael Porter Jr. PF (Out), Vlatko Cancar SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in Boston’s last six games against teams with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Nuggets.
Celtics vs Nuggets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Celtics have started this Western swing in style, not only topping the Warriors and Kings but beating the spread in those two games by a combined total of 42 points. That fits in line with what Boston has put together this season, an Eastern-best point differential of +6.1 points per game.
In 35 games since January 1, the Celtics lead the league with a net differential of +11.4 points per game. The Nuggets also fare well in this selection with a net differential of +5.37 ppg, good for No. 5 in the league. However, the difference between Boston and Denver is greater than the difference between Denver and the Knicks, No. 17 in the league.
To overcome whatever the Celtics are doing to play so thoroughly, one might want to credit the Nuggets’ home-court advantage, but the mile-high altitude has not been as helpful of late as one might expect. Denver is a woeful 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record, and Boston is 19-16 on the road.
To be clear, the teams you assume have a winning road record generally are the ones that do. Distinct home/away splits are not that common, though the Lakers are 10-24 on the road and that stands out. The teams the Nuggets have struggled to measure up against are the teams they absolutely need to measure up against.
But that woeful stat is a symptom of a larger issue. Those last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record date back to a 17-point loss to the Timberwolves in mid-December on a night when Denver was favored by 4.0. Over the same period of time, the Nuggets have faced 11 teams with losing road records and have gone 6-5 ATS against them.
Denver is no longer a distinct advantage. And it needs to be tonight against a Celtics team that cannot be described as “surging” only because it has been doing so for so long. At this point, Boston could be considered the second-best team in the league. Since January 1, the Celtics have gone 26-9, a 61-win pace if across the entire season. Starting the year 17-18 colored our perceptions of Boston, a mistake furthered by remaining No. 4 in the Eastern standings.
If you look at tonight as the second-best team in the league against a team that struggles to deliver at home, then favoring the Celtics by only 2.5 points feels very low.
Prediction: Celtics -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Celtics are strong on both sides of the ball, but its defense particularly stands out. Two of their last three games fell short of 200 total points. Four of their last five fell short of 220, as have seven of their last 10.
Since February 1, Boston averages only 96.2 possessions per game, the fifth-fewest in the league, while Denver is around the league average.
Of course, that is factored into the total by the bookmakers. Hence a total of 221.5 that at this point in the season, amidst a scoring boom across the league, should be considered relatively low.
Still, it is not low enough. Not when the Celtics can throw defenders at Nikola Jokic in waves to slow down the fulcrum of everything the Nuggets do. Al Horford, Marcus Smart, and Robert Williams III have combined to average 94.4 minutes per game since the All-Star break. Jokic will certainly still put up numbers — he has put up at least 42 points + rebounds + assists in every game this month — but slowing him down just a touch dooms Denver’s offense. Just as evidence, the Nuggets' offensive rating falls by two full points this season in the seven games Joki? missed.
Boston can slow him down, and in doing so, it can send this game Under its total.
Prediction: Under 221.5 (-110)
Best bet
The sample size is long enough, and you'd think the betting markets would have caught up with Boston by now. But they haven’t.
For example, the Celtics still have only the fifth-best odds to win the Eastern Conference, nearly double even the third-best odds. Of course, that is not the best bet today, but it underscores how undervalued Boston continues to be.
That can be to our advantage. Usually, a conviction this strong manifests itself in an alternative spread from this handicapper, but the math does not find value in the available numbers today. Instead, we will be content with a simple three-point win.
Pick: Celtics -2.5 (-110)
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