No more dress rehearsals. It's time for the show — NASCAR's Cup series Championship at Phoenix Raceway.
The Cup Series Championship odds are tightly-packed among the Championship 4, each with a plausible claim to victory this weekend. We're here to help you navigate your last chance to bet on NASCAR for the next few months, with the trends and angles that matter.
Check out our best free Cup Series Championship picks and predictions for Sunday, November 6.
Cup Series Championship best bets
Picks made on 10/25/22 at 11:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cup Series Championship favorites
Christopher Bell (+400)
He was ninth in both races last year, won Loudon, and was sixth and second, respectively, at Richmond, too. He’s also won the last two elimination races of the playoffs, so he’s battle-tested and entering on the heels of a win.
Chase Elliott (+200)
Elliott enters Phoenix having won the fall race in 2020, was fifth in both races a year ago, and has six Top 7s in his last 10 on this track. If not for pit road, he had a Top-5 car in the spring race after finishing third and second in both stages. At Richmond, Elliott took 14th and fifth, respectively, while also coming home runner-up at Loudon. The only drawback is that he’s had just two Top-10 finishes over the last 11 races this season.
Joey Logano (+400)
Logano didn’t use to be among the ones to beat at Phoenix, but over his last six starts, he has five Top-10 finishes including a win in the 2020 spring race, and third in that year’s playoff race. He was also runner-up in the 2021 spring race, in which he led the most laps (143) too. However, on like tracks this season, Logano was 17th and sixth at Richmond and 28th at Loudon. The thing is, he’s had the most time to massage his car to the best of its ability in winning the Round of 8 opener. He did so in 2018 and took home the title that year.
Ross Chastain (+400)
Runner-up in the spring race, but only 19th and 18th in Richmond and eighth in Loudon make me leery. However, he’s in the Championship 4 and has six Top-7 finishes in the last eight weeks, including his last three finishes being second, second, and fourth, respectively.
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Cup Series Championship longshot picks
Kyle Larson (+1,400)
This didn’t use to be one of his better tracks. Now it’s become one. Larson has three Top 5’s in his last five there, including being seventh and first respectively in 2021. He was however 34th this past spring after an engine went down, though he was seventh and fifth in the stages. On like tracks this season, Larson was fifth and 14th at Richmond, as well as 14th at Loudon. He’s also fighting for a championship on the owners’ side and enters with finishes of first and second the last two weeks.
Denny Hamlin (+1,600)
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has 10 Top-10 finishes in his last 13 starts in the desert, including five Top-5 finishes in his last seven. At Richmond, he was first and fourth respectively while finishing sixth at Loudon. He led 203 laps a week ago in Martinsville, and if not for his pit crew, a win was likely.
Brad Keselowski (+6,600)
He was second and 10th in his last two fall race starts here, and fourth in the spring of 2021. Roush used to be really good at Phoenix. Can Keselowski put them back on top?
Chris Buescher (+15,000)
He won Bristol, was third last time out in Richmond, and had a Top-10 here in the spring.
Cup Series Championship fades
Ryan Blaney (+1,600)
One of the top Penske drivers at this track. Blaney, has six Top 10’s in his last seven at Phoenix, including a pair of third-place runs in 2019, 10th and sixth in 2020, 10th (35 laps led) and fourth last year, then fourth again this past spring. He led 143 laps and won Stage 2 but pit road on his final stop kept him from victory lane.
He was seventh and 10th at Richmond this year and only 18th at Loudon, though. Blaney was third last week in Martinsville, however, he’s winless in his last 45 starts including 0-for-35 this season. Do you think he magically wins on Sunday?
Kevin Harvick (+1,800)
The proverbial “king of the desert” has been astounding in Phoenix. Since 2012, Harvick has seven wins alone to go along with 11 Top-2 finishes (21 tries). Furthermore, Harvick has finished worse than seventh in just three of those 21 starts. He was sixth in the spring race but restarted third in the end. He just didn't have the launch to contend for the win and got eaten alive.
He was second and first, respectively, at Richmond and finished fifth at Loudon, too. Now he can attempt to become just the sixth driver to win 10 or more races at a single track with a win this weekend.
In saying that, he hasn’t won with this new configuration, going 0-for-7.
This change has been his kryptonite, you could say. Seven of his last eight Phoenix results have seen him finish fifth or worse. 10 of his previous 13 on the old configuration saw him finish fourth or better.
Martin Truex Jr. (+2,200)
He finally won at Phoenix in the 2021 spring race and was runner-up last fall. It was a huge load off of his shoulders because, quite frankly, until he joined Joe Gibbs Racing, he never was much of a threat there.
But Truex has since finished third in the Fall of 2017, fifth in the spring race of 2018, and runner-up in the spring race of 2019. On like tracks, he finished fourth and seventh at Richmond and fourth at Loudon. The thing is, he hasn’t finished better than fourth all season, so I don’t necessarily think he’s just going to magically win on Sunday.