F1 Qatar Grand Prix Prediction, Picks & Odds – Lusail International Circuit 2025

We have the latest F1 odds for Sunday’s Qatar GP, along with our free betting picks following Saturday’s qualifying session.

Eric Smith - Contributor at Covers.com
Eric Smith • Betting Analyst
Nov 29, 2025 • 14:40 ET • 4 min read
Oscar Piastri F1
Photo By - Imagn Images. F1 driver Oscar Piastri.

Lusail International Circuit is the site for Sunday's Qatar Grand Prix, the penultimate race of the 2025 F1 season.

Max Verstappen is going for his second straight win and fifth in nine races as he continues his quest for a fifth consecutive championship. Meanwhile, McLaren’s Oscar Piastri looks to erase the disappointment of Las Vegas Grand Prix DNFs and is in a strong position after securing pole on Saturday.

With qualifying complete, here are the latest F1 odds and our free betting picks for the Qatar GP.

2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix odds

Driver bet365
McLaren Oscar Piastri -175
McLaren Lando Norris +225
Red Bull Max Verstappen +550
Mercedes George Russell +1600
Mercedes Kimi Antonelli +5000
VCARB Isack Hadjar +10000
Williams Carlos Sainz +20000
Aston Martin Fernando Alonso +20000
Ferrari Charles Leclerc +25000
Ferrari Lewis Hamilton +50000
Alpine Pierre Gasly +50000
VCARB Liam Lawson +100000
Kick Sauber Nico Hulkenberg +100000
Williams Alex Albon +150000
Haas Oliver Bearman +150000
Red Bull Yuki Tsunoda +150000
Kick Sauber Gabriel Bortoleto +200000
Haas Esteban Ocon +250000
Alpine Franco Colapinto +300000
Aston Martin Lance Stroll +300000

Odds as of 11-29.

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F1 Qatar Grand Prix 2025 post-qualifying picks

Both Cars On Podium Finish: McLaren (-103 at bet365), Piastri to win outright (-175 at bet365)

McLaren arrives at the fourth annual Qatar Grand Prix with measured confidence. Both the team and its rivals believe the Middle East heat could give them a meaningful edge at Lusail International Circuit.

Neither Oscar Piastri nor Lando Norris has won in Qatar, but their track record is strong. They finished second and third, respectively, in 2023, and Piastri added another podium with third place last year. Earlier this season, Piastri won at a similar circuit in Saudi Arabia, while Norris finished fourth.

Although Piastri hasn’t stood on the podium since the Italian Grand Prix seven races ago, he opened the year with 14 podiums in the first 16 rounds. That streak was bound to resume at some point, and after winning Saturday’s 19-lap sprint race from pole, I believe it happens Sunday. 

Norris, meanwhile, has four podiums in the last five races, the lone exception being his disqualification after finishing second in Las Vegas. He added a third-place result in Saturday’s sprint and starts second in Sunday’s Grand Prix.

F1 Qatar Grand Prix prop pick: Both Cars Top-6 Finish: Mercedes (-163 at bet365)

George Russell finished fourth in his last two Qatar Grand Prix starts and was runner-up in Saturday’s sprint. He also placed fourth in Saudi Arabia earlier this spring. 

Last week in Las Vegas, Russell was runner-up, marking his ninth Top-6 finish in the last seven starts, with the only outlier being a seventh-place result in Mexico City. He will start fourth.

Rookie Kimi Antonelli has two consecutive podiums this season and five Top-6 finishes in the last seven races. He finished sixth in the sprint and will start fifth.

F1 Qatar Grand Prix prop pick: Fernando Alonso to score points (+137 at bet365)

Alonso finished third, sixth, and seventh, respectively, in three Qatar Grand Prix starts. He has also scored points in eight of the last 14 races.

He placed seventh in Saturday’s sprint race and will start eighth on Sunday.

F1 Qatar Grand Prix prop pick: Pierre Gasly to score points (+225 at bet365)

Lusail is a great track for Alpine. It had two cars finish in the Top 5 in 2021. Last year, Pierre Gasly charged from 11th to finish fifth. He qualified ninth on Saturday.

While Gasly sits 18th in points entering the weekend, he finished 10th just two races ago in Brazil. I expect him to score points in two of the last three races heading into the season finale.

F1 Qatar Grand Prix 2025 starting grid

Position Driver Position Driver
1 Piastri 2 Norris
3 Verstappen 4 Russell
5 Antonelli 6 Hadjar
7 Sainz 8 Alonso
9 Gasly 10 Leclerc
11 Hulkenberg 12 Lawson
13 Bearman 14 Bortoleto
15 Albon 16 Tsunoda
17 Ocon 18 Hamilton
19 Stroll 20 Colapinto

F1 Qatar Grand Prix 2025 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen's bid for a fifth straight title is still a long shot, but he's making a race of it as the season approaches the wire. Verstappen is the +125 pre-qualifying favorite to win his third straight Qatar GP.

Lando Norris (+175) breathes down Verstappen's neck, while Oscar Piastri (+600) sits an isolated third. George Russell (+1200) and Kimi Antonelli (+1600) are seen as realistic win contenders as their better-than-expected seasons continue.

Disappointing Ferrari teammates Charles Leclerc (+1600) and Lewis Hamilton (+3300) are the final two drivers below 300-1 in the wagering.

Previous F1 Qatar Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2024 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2023 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2022 Race Not Held N/A
2021 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Charles Leclerc +400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $400 if Leclerc wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric Smith - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Eric Smith has over a decade of experience in motorsports. Beginning with Bleacher Report in 2011 to becoming a nationally accredited motorsports journalist, Eric has been featured in numerous publications. His love of the sport helped spark a path to Covers in 2019 as an auto racing analyst providing insights into how to bet and who to be on the NASCAR scene.

NASCAR is a unique sport to wager on with the percentages of a win less than the 50-50 venture of stick-and-ball sports. However, Eric found a method to wager on multiple drivers to come away profitable in the end. His experience in the sport and his aforementioned technique has allowed Eric to decipher pages of data to compute a winner at a 70% clip.

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