Playoff elimination night is set under the lights at "The Last Great Colosseum." Bristol Motor Speedway, the legendary half-mile concrete oval, delivers 500 laps of intensity where track position, mechanical grip, and bold restarts decide who survives.
With the 2025 NASCAR Playoffs heating up, this race could deliver heartbreak for some big names while giving others the momentum to charge into the Round of 12. The 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race fires off Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on USA.
This is one of the most unforgiving tracks in NASCAR, and it’s where elite short-track racers like Kyle Larson and clutch playoff veterans (think Denny Hamlin) prove their worth.
As you can imagine, our NASCAR race picks for this weekend target proven Bristol performers and aggressive drivers who excel under pressure.
NASCAR prop picks for Bass Pro Shops Night Race
- Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (-150)
- Top 3 Finish: Denny Hamlin (+140)
- Top 10 Finish: Ross Chastain (+160)
NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race props and best bets
Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (-150 at bet365)
When it comes to free betting picks for Bristol, Larson leads the charge thanks to his recent dominance on concrete ovals. Like Michael Jordan in elimination games, NASCAR's "Golden Boy" is a performer. As the wiseguys say, the proof is in the pudding.
- 🏁 Short-track elite — Larson owns two Bristol victories since 2021, including this very event in 2023.
- 📊 Speed matters — He’s ranked inside the Top 3 in green-flag speed at both Bristol and Richmond since 2023.
- ⚡ Playoff luxury — Already secured in Round 2, Larson and the No. 5 team can swing for the fences on strategy.
- 🎯 Restart magic — Outside-lane launches make him a late-race Top 3 favorite nearly every time.
Among this week’s NASCAR race picks, Larson is the safest bet for a Top 3 charge under the lights. Yes, his price is super short in a market like this, but he should be priced closer to -220. If Larson qualifies well, his finishing in the Top 5 isn't a huge ask.
Top 3 Finish: Denny Hamlin (+140 at bet365)
Hamlin remains one of the sharpest Bristol tacticians, and his knack for keeping his car clean in traffic makes him an essential part of our free betting picks card, espically after his win at Gateway last week.
- 🏁 Three-time Bristol winner, including the 2021 Night Race.
- 📊 Four Top 5 finishes in his last six Bristol starts.
- 🔥 Elevated performance under playoff pressure, especially near the elimination cut line.
⚙️ Second-best average Bristol driver rating over the past five years.
Hamlin blends form, experience, and urgency — making him one of the best NASCAR race picks this week.
Top 10 Finish: Ross Chastain (+160 at bet365)
For bettors looking for value in free betting picks, Chastain delivers aggression and upside.
- 🏁 Fresh off a Top 5 at Richmond, confirming Trackhouse’s short-track strength.
- 📊 Ranked among the best in dirty-air pass efficiency this season.
- ⚡ On the playoff bubble, meaning “win or bust,” aggression is in play.
- 🎯 Chaos converter — thrives in wild, restart-heavy finales.
With odds nearly 2-to-1, Chastain is a high-risk, high-reward swing worth anchoring to this week’s NASCAR race picks.
💡 Why these picks stick
Kyle Larson provides dominance with no playoff pressure, Denny Hamlin thrives when elimination looms, and Ross Chastain is the chaos-play capable of shocking the field. When it comes to building your NASCAR race picks for Saturday night, this trio checks every box bettors look for on the toughest short track in the Playoffs.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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