NASCAR's heading to Music City for this Sunday's night race at the Nashville Superspeedway.
Martin Truex Jr. came away with his second victory of the season two weeks ago at Sonoma, but Kyle Larson is still the favorite in the latest Cup Series odds.
Larson enters the fray as the betting favorite to win the Ally 400 this weekend, but several drivers are nipping at his heels.
We break down the NASCAR odds and serve up our best Ally 400 betting picks for the race on Sunday, June 25.
Odds to win 2023 Ally 400
| Driver | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +550 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +750 |
| Kyle Busch | +750 |
| William Byron | +850 |
| Denny Hamlin | +850 |
| Chase Elliott | +850 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,000 |
| Ross Chastain | +1,100 |
| Christopher Bell | +1,100 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1,600 |
| Joey Logano | +1,800 |
| Kevin Harvick | +2,000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2,200 |
| Alex Bowman | +3,000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +3,500 |
| Daniel Suarez | +4,000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +4,500 |
| Chris Buescher | +8,000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +10,000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +10,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 20, 2023.
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Ally 400 field
The Ally 400 is still a relatively new race in the Cup Series circuit with the 2023 edition being only the third running of the event since its inception in 2021, which was the first Cup Series race in Nashville since 1984.
Hendrick Motorsports has emerged victorious in each of the last two years with Kyle Larson winning in 2021 and Chase Elliott capturing the checkered flag a year ago. Larson is the betting favorite to take the race once again.
Cup Series points leader Martin Truex Jr. is second on the odds board coming off his second win of the season.
Nashville Superspeedway is an intermediate track that has garnered comparisons to Darlington and Dover.
Ally 400 picks and predictions
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Ally 400 favorites
Kyle Larson (+550)
Larson led all but 36 laps in his 2021 win and backed that up by finishing fourth a year ago. The thing is, he was also 32nd and 20th, respectively, at Dover and Darlington, too this season. In saying that, he did have a fast car in Dover but was an innocent bystander for Ross Chastain taking out Brennan Poole. He had the Darlington race in the bag before a late caution and falling afoul Chastain’s bumper again.
Martin Truex Jr. (+750)
While the stats say 22nd in both races here, Truex led 82 laps last year and was a bad pit call away from a win. He swept both stages a year ago and won at Dover this year as well as having a race-winning car in Darlington before crashing last month. Truex enters on the heels of a Sonoma win for which he has seven Top-8 finishes in the last nine points-paying races, including three consecutive Top-5 efforts.
William Byron (+850)
Byron finished third in 2021, won Darlington this year, and was also fourth in Dover this spring. With HMS having won both races at this track by two different drivers, Byron is next in line for victory. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished first, third, first, second, and eighth, respectively.
Ally 400 sleepers
Ross Chastain (+1,100)
He was third and second, respectively, the last two years at Dover, had a car capable of winning Darlington the last two years too, and was runner-up and fifth here in his two tries. Need I say any more?
Ryan Blaney (+1,200)
These used to be Blaney's worst types of tracks. Then he went out and finished third in Dover this spring and ninth at Darlington. Here, Blaney has qualified 10th and sixth, respectively, and finished third just last year.
Bubba Wallace (+2,200)
Wallace has finished 20th and 12th in his two trips to Nashville. In saying that, he has four Top-5 finishes in five starts on intermediate tracks this season.
Ally 400 fades
Kyle Busch (+750)
The good? Busch has pair of Xfinity Series wins (2009, 2021) and a pair of Truck Series wins (2010, 2011). The bad? His two Cup finishes are 11th and 21st. He led 10 laps in the inaugural race and 54 a year ago. He was 21st this year in Dover, too. However, he does have four consecutive Top-7 finishes on the season.
Christopher Bell (+1,100)
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has a pair of Top-10 finishes (9th, 8th) as well as finishing sixth in Dover and 14th in Darlington this year. The only thing about Bell is he’s not had a Top-5 finish in eight consecutive races since his Bristol Dirt win on Easter.
Joey Logano (+1,800)
He’s a past Xfinity Series winner here and has finished 10th and ninth, respectively in Cup Series races at Nashville. However, he was 31st in Dover and 18th in Darlington last month. While he’s had a third-place finish in each of the last two races, I don’t get a good feeling about him on Sunday based on his more recent performances on intermediate tracks.
Ally 400 prop pick
Winning Manufacturer - Toyota
I’m getting plus money on a manufacturer that led 253 of 300 laps a year ago. Chevrolet led 52 laps in 2022 and Ford has led just 11 total laps over the last two years in Nashville. Toyota has been among the best teams on intermediate tracks this season and if you exclude Ford, it’s a Chevy vs. Toyota battle for the win and I’ll take the plus money all day.
This is shaping up to be a Hendrick vs. Gibbs battle.
Pick: Winning manufacturer - Toyota (+175 at DraftKings)
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Nashville Superspeedway track analysis
This is only the third time the track has ever hosted a Cup Series race but the 2021 and 2022 editions were vastly different in the fact that they went from the old model (2021) to the Next Gen (2022). This year, the race is the same as last year’s. While this weekend’s race is a scheduled night event, last year’s race was delayed until it was under the lights so there’s a lot to look at in comparison.
The 1.33-mile D-shaped oval with 14 degrees of banking in the turns was home to 21 NASCAR Xfinity Series races and 13 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series events prior to the 2021 tripleheader weekend.
Nashville Superspeedway is the largest concrete-only track in NASCAR, and the 1.33-mile speedway is owned by Dover Motorsports, Inc., which also owns Dover International Speedway in Delaware. That’s why Dover and Darlington are the two examples to point to in regard to comps and have proven in the last two years that results translate well between these three tracks.
Hendrick Motorsports is 2-for-2 here and won the 1984 Nashville race at the Fairgrounds to make them victors in the last three trips to the Music City.
Ally 400 trends
- The eventual winner has finished in the points in both stages in the first two years this race has been held.
- Kyle Larson finished second and first in those opening stages in 2021.
- Chase Elliott finished eighth and fourth, respectively, in the first two stages in 2022 before eventually winning the race ahead of the likes of Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney, who rounded out the Top 3.
