Kyle Larson opened as a decisive favorite to notch his co-series leading third win of 2025 in the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Motor Speedway on Sunday, May 11.
Is there any beating the NASCAR Cup Series odds favorite this week, and if so, who will take the checkered flag instead? Our free betting picks will sort things out.
Odds to win 2025 AdventHealth 400
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +265 |
| Ryan Blaney | +700 |
| Denny Hamlin | +750 |
| Tyler Reddick | +800 |
| William Byron | +850 |
| Chris Buescher | +1000 |
| Christopher Bell | +1100 |
| Joey Logano | +2000 |
| Chase Elliott | +2000 |
| Alex Bowman | +2000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2000 |
| Kyle Busch | +2200 |
| Ross Chastain | +2500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2800 |
| Austin Cindric | +3000 |
| Josh Berry | +3500 |
| Chase Briscoe | +5000 |
| Ryan Preece | +5000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +6000 |
Odds as of 5-11.
AdventHealth 400 field
A field of 38 drivers will appear at Kansas Motor Speedway for the AdventHealth 400, with Jesse Love (No. 33 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing) and Corey Heim (No. 67 Toyota for 23XI Racing) joining the 36 chartered competitors.
Kyle Larson opened as the +400 pre-qualifying favorite, far ahead of the four pack of Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Tyler Reddick at +800 apiece. Last week's winner, Joey Logano, sits at +1400 in the early wagering.
AdventHealth 400 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5-10.
AdventHealth 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Kyle Larson (+400)
Kyle Larson has led an average of nearly 68 laps per race in his last eight Kansas starts. He has two wins (Fall 2021, Spring 2024) to show for it. Still, he has finished eighth or better in all but one race.
Larson won last year’s spring race for his third consecutive Top-2 finish in the first Kansas visit of the season. He led 61 laps, won the second stage, and finished ninth in the spring Vegas race. On the season, Larson has seven Top-10 finishes in the last eight races, including five Top 5s in the last six.
William Byron (+800)
He has eight Top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts at Kansas, including a runner-up last fall. William Byron led 24 laps and finished first and fourth, respectively, in the pair of stages that day.
He led 10 laps and finished fourth this spring in Vegas, netting him six Top-7 finishes in his last seven Vegas starts, too. Byron, the points leader, has three Top-6 finishes in the last four races on the season.
Christopher Bell (+1100)
Six Top-8 finishes (eighth, fifth, third, 36th, eighth, sixth and seventh) in his last seven Kansas tries and four Top 10 finishes in the last five races overall have Bell as a contender on Sunday.
He started on the pole and led a race-high 122 of 267 laps last fall. He also finished 12th in Vegas this year. Bell has five Top-10 finishes in his last eight Vegas starts, including a fifth-place run in the 2023 spring race and a runner-up the last two fall races, leading 61 laps in 2023 and 155 last year.
AdventHealth 400 sleepers
23XI Racing
The 45 car swept both races in 2022 via Kurt Busch in the spring and Bubba Wallace (+2200) in the fall. Busch led 116 of 267 laps in that 2022 May race, while Wallace led 58 laps in his fall win. Wallace was also fourth in the 2023 spring race and 17th last spring.
Tyler Reddick (+800) won in the 45 car in the 2023 fall race and was ninth in the spring race that year, but 20th last year. They finished 17th (Wallace) and 25th (Reddick) last fall, too. In Vegas, they finished 24th (Reddick) and 28th (Wallace) but combined to lead seven times for 54 laps.
Ross Chastain (+1800)
He won last fall after leading 52 laps and finished fifth in the spring Vegas race for his fifth Top 5 finish in his last seven tries there. Chastain enters Kansas with four Top 7 finishes, including a runner-up last week in the last five races.
Alex Bowman (+2500)
The Hendrick Motorsports driver has 11 Top-11 finishes in his last 12 Kansas tries, including results of ninth, fourth, 10th, seventh and sixth in his last five. Alex Bowman finished seventh in the spring Vegas race.
Josh Berry (+3000)
Josh Berry finished last in the fall Kansas race, but did win in Vegas this spring and crashed while leading in Texas last week.
Daniel Suarez (+5000)
He finished 27th and 13th in Kansas last year but he’s been strong at Vegas. Daniel Suarez finished 11th and third (led 57 laps), respectively, last year in Vegas and runner-up this spring. Worth a look.
AdventHealth 400 fades
Ryan Blaney (+800)
He’s hot entering this race with three Top-5 finishes in the last four races. However, Ryan Blaney has one finish better than seventh at Kansas since 2017, and that was a fourth-place result last fall. He does have four Top-10 finishes in that span. He’s finished 16th, 12th, 12th, fourth in his last four Kansas starts and was 35th this spring in Vegas. He has just 10 Top-7 finishes in his last 17 Vegas starts.
While he was sixth in the 2023 fall race and third last spring, his other four Next Gen finishes are 36th, 28th, 13th, 32nd, and 35th.
Joey Logano (+1400)
Entering off a Texas win, Logano finished 34th and 14th last year in Kansas and 15th this spring in Vegas.
Chase Elliott (+1400)
Elliott was seventh and sixth in the pair of Kansas races in 2023, and third and ninth last year, giving him 14 Top-12 finishes in his last 15 Kansas starts. He finished 10th in the spring Vegas event in early March.
However, his winless streak dates over a year and his best finish is fourth all season. An outright win? Doubtful. A fantasy play is a better option.
AdventHealth 400 prop pick: Denny Hamlin Top-3 finish
He was fifth here last spring and eighth last fall. Denny Hamlin has eight Top-5 finishes in his last 11 Kansas tries, including three wins and a pair of runner-up results in that span. With this new style of car, his finishes are fourth, second, first, second, fifth, and eighth, respectively.
That’s why, despite finishing 25th in Vegas, he’s a nice prop bet.
Pick: Denny Hamlin Top-3 finish (+140 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Kansas Motor Speedway track analysis
Toyota has won seven of the last 11 Kansas races and nine of the last 16.
The manufacturer went 1-3-4-5-6 in the spring race in 2022 (171 of 267 laps led) and 1-2-3-5 in the fall (94 of 267 laps led). They combined to lead 265 of 534 laps (49.6%) for 2022 on this track. In the 2023 spring race, it went 1-4-8-9 and combined to lead 148 of 267 (55.4%). In the playoff race that year, Toyotas led 83 of 268 laps and finished 1-2.
In last year’s spring race, Toyota had two cars in the Top 5, and 78 combined laps led. In the fall, Toyota had two more cars in the Top 5 with 140 laps led.
However, it was Chevrolet that swept the wins in 2024 by two different teams (Hendrick Motorsports, Trackhouse Racing). Chevy had two of the Top-3 finishers in the spring race and went 1-2 in the fall.
The closest comparison to this track on the schedule is Las Vegas Motor Speedway, as the drivers who typically excel in the Vegas are also strong at Kansas.
Since 2011, every Kansas winner has won a series championship, with the exception of Hamlin, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain. In fact, only Hamlin, Chastain, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Joe Nemechek, and Wallace have won at Kansas and not also won a Cup title. Kyle Larson joined that list, but only for a few months in the fall of 2021 before he became a champion.
AdventHealth 400 trends
- Nine of the last 10 Kansas winners have started in the Top 10. Ross Chastain’s 20th-place start last fall is the exception. Fifteen of the last 18 Kansas winners started in the Top 6 rows.
- Kansas race winners scored stage points in every first stage under the stage era, with the exception of the 2022 spring race and last year’s playoff race.
- The eventual race winner finished in the Top 5 in eight of the last 11 second stages.
- Oddly, Kansas race winners have won the second stage only twice (2019 playoff race, May 2022).
Not intended for use in MA.
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AdventHealth 400 info
| Location: | Kansas Motor Speedway, Kansas City, KS |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-11-2025 |
| Start time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Previous AdventHealth 400 winners
Kyle Larson interrupted a streak of four straight wins at the AdventHealth 400 by Toyota drivers last year.
| Year | Winner |
| 2024 | Kyle Larson |
| 2023 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2022 | Kurt Busch |
| 2021 | Kyle Busch |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin |
How to make AdventHealth 400 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
