Texas Motor Speedway holds a special place in the hearts of many NASCAR fans.
Since its inception in 1997, the track has played host to a ton of “Where were you when this happened?” moments.
The most notable was Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s first NASCAR Cup Series win back in 2000. If you'll recall, that win cemented Earnhardt Jr.'s status as the best young gun in the game at the time and lit the flame for the timeless Dale Jr vs. Jeff Gordon rivalry.
Nevertheless, when the drivers rev up their engines tomorrow for the Wurth 400 on FS1 at 3:00 p.m. EST, our NASCAR race picks will be backing Hendrick Motorsports' laid-back gunslinger Alex Bowman to shoot straight and accurately in this 400.5-mile affair.
So, keep your hats on and your hearts wild while I lay it all on the line with my free betting picks for this week.
NASCAR prop picks for Wurth 400
- Top 10 Finish: Alex Bowman (+130 at bet365)
- Top 10 Finish: A. J. Allmendinger (+400 at bet365)
- Kyle Larson over William Byron (+100 at bet365)
NASCAR Wurth 400 props and best bets
Top 10 Finish: Alex Bowman (+130 at bet365)
Naysayers of Alex Bowman might reckon he’s just another old cowboy looking for a home. After all, he looks out of sorts driving for NASCAR’s best team, disappearing in big races like Auston Matthews does in elimination games.
However, I'm not one to judge a man until I walk a mile in his boots. Of course, no sane mortal being will ever let me behind the wheel of a NextGen car, so I’ll have to turn to the numbers.
What do they say about numbers again? Oh, yeah, that's right: they don't lie.
Reading these numbers straight down the line, they say that Bowman has a solid track record at Texas, with 15 career Cup Series starts and two top-10 finishes, including a notable fifth-place run during his standout 2020 season.
While his average finish at 1.5-mile tracks is around 18.0, Bowman’s results have been trending upward, especially as he’s gained experience and confidence with Hendrick Motorsports.
In 2024, Bowman set a career-high with 17 top-10 finishes and ended the season ninth in the final standings.
He also performed pretty darn well in the playoffs last year, earning top-10s at similar intermediate tracks like Las Vegas and Homestead-Miami.
Yeah, I get it. He ain't no Jimmie Johnson, but for the price of +130, I'm willing to say, “Dang it,” and pull the trigger.
I have the odds projected closer to -115, so we’re getting some +EV.
Top 10 Finish: A. J. Allmendinger (+400 at bet365)
I get it; the Cup Series is a whole other animal than the Xfinity Series, but you can't glance over these Xfinity numbers without saying, "Yeah, that boy IS right."
In Texas, Allmendinger has achieved multiple Top 10 finishes, including a second-place finish in September 2022 and a recent eighth-place finish in 2024. He also started on the pole in the 2021 Xfinity race at Texas.
Across his Xfinity career, he has 18 wins, with many coming on intermediate (1.5-mile) tracks like Texas and Las Vegas.
Last October, he won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (another 1.5-mile track), leading 102 laps and clinching a Championship 4 spot.
And it’s not like he’s driving slow cars in the Cup Series, either. Allmendinger qualified in sixth place at Texas Motor Speedway in 2023 and has had good runs since then.
Plus, depending on who you ask, his statistical probability of finishing in the top 10 is estimated at 24.8%, which is higher than the implied odds for his current betting line of +400. Those implied odds say he has a 20% chance.
The pedigree is there. We just need a bit of luck.
Kyle Larson over William Byron (+100 at bet365)
These head-to-head matchups are always a toss-up, especially between two Hendrick Motorsports teammates. By default, my mind prices this as a -110 pick ‘em.
Yes, I understand Wild Bill has himself a slightly better average finishing position at Texas Motor Speedway than Larson. That said, my gut says Larson is the most consistent of the two in the NextGen car era in Texas. Larson has led 327 laps to Byron’s 189.
Not to mention, Larson has been faster this year on 1.5-mile tracks, posting the fastest race speed at Las Vegas a while back.
Larson also leads the Cup Series with seven stage wins and 18 playoff points this season.
Add in the fact that he dominated the 2021 Texas Cup race, leading 256 of 334 laps for the win, and has had five Top 5 finishes in his last seven Texas starts, and +100 feels like a steal in this head-to-head matchup.
Not intended for use in MA.
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