We haven't seen any major upsets in the NASCAR Cup Series odds this season, but my free betting picks sense a change in the air on Sunday, April 19.
Read on for my AdventHealth 400 sleeper picks for the upcoming race at Kansas Motor Speedway, featuring Brad Keselowski.
AdventHealth 400 sleeper picks
- Brad Keselowski (+3500)
- Zane Smith (+13000)
- Todd Gilliland (+25000)
Picks were made on 4-17.
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AdventHealth 400 sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Brad Keselowski
+3500 at DraftKings
Wins have been few and far between for Brad Keselowski since leaving Team Penske, but we've seen RFK Racing jump up and surprise the competition from time to time, like at Darlington three races ago.
After mediocre results at back-to-back short tracks (13th at Martinsville, 14th at Bristol), Keselowski is likely eager to get back to an intermediate oval.
Keselowski ended up settling for second at Darlington, but he did lead 142 laps. That was good for his fourth straight Top 10 at intermediate tracks, which was kickstarted by an eighth-place finish at Kansas last October.
The No. 6 Ford driver is a two-time winner at this course.
Sleeper pick to win: Zane Smith
+13000 at DraftKings
Kansas was one of Zane Smith's best tracks in the Truck Series, and that success has carried over to some extent in the Cup Series.
Smith had five Top 5s in as many Truck Series races on this oval, with one victory. He was 10th with three laps led in the September 2024 Cup Series race here, and 16th with two stage placings last May.
He started last autumn's race at Kansas with a ninth in Stage 1, but was later knocked out of contention due to an accident and placed 31st.
Smith was 14th at Las Vegas, the track most similar to Kansas, earlier this season. A Top 10 wager (+550) is the more likely winner, but there are enough reasons to justify a win bet flier at this price.
Sleeper pick to win: Todd Gilliland
+25000 at DraftKings
Once again, Todd Gilliland is a safer Top 10 play (+1100) than an outright, but there's a case to be made that he'll be involved late.
Gilliland has run 12th in back-to-back races at Kansas, overcoming identical 23rd-place start positions in last year's events here. A better qualifying effort could go a long way toward helping Gilliland's cause on Sunday.
The No. 34 pilot exits a season-best sixth-place finish at Bristol following a bold late pit stop strategy that helped him leapfrog a lot of drivers. That willingness to take a chance is what can help spring an upset.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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