Bristol Motor Speedway isn't known as a haven for massive upsets, but I've found three drivers who can outrun their odds and give long-shot bettors a run for the money on Sunday afternoon.
Find out why Chase Briscoe has caught my eye in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, and see who else is part of my free betting picks for April 12.
Food City 500 sleeper picks
- Briscoe (+1400)
- Keselowski (+2200)
- Hocevar (+2800)
Picks were made on 4-10 at 6:00 a.m. ET.
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Food City 500 sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Chase Briscoe
+1400 at DraftKings
Chase Briscoe is far down the standings after a disastrous start to the season, but he's shaken that off for the most part and has flashed great speed in the last three races while averaging a 10th-place finish.
Bettors are still waiting for him to put it all together and have a little luck in order to visit Victory Lane for the first time this season, and I think the odds are fair to take a chance on that happening on Sunday.
Briscoe has hit the Top 10 in three straight starts at Bristol, and he led 127 laps here last autumn en route to a ninth-place finish.
Sleeper pick to win: Brad Keselowski
+2200 at DraftKings
Brad Keselowski's second-place finish here last fall was one of many close calls he's had at snapping a long losing streak. With his recent success at Darlington in mind, I'm taking the plunge on the former champ tasting victory once more.
Keselowski has led at least one lap in nine of his last 14 races at Bristol. He's been no worse than eighth in seven of his last 11 starts here, piling up 13 stage placings.
He's done this all while qualifying rather poorly, starting better than 10th just once in his last seven races at Bristol. If he can find some short-run speed in qualifying, watch out.
Sleeper pick to win: Carson Hocevar
+2800 at DraftKings
Despite the demanding nature of Bristol, youngster Carson Hocevar has demonstrated a knack for this track. I wouldn't be shocked if he's part of the win picture at the end of this race.
Hocevar was 11th with two stage placings in this race last year, and followed that up with a seventh-place result in the September night race along with 26 laps led.
The No. 77 driver already has two Top 5s this year, so the recent form is not bad for a 30-1 shot.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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