The NASCAR playoffs commence the Round of 12 Sunday, when the circuit swings into Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the South Point 400.
True to the form of a race named after a casino, it represents a big inflection point in how the playoffs will develop, and should provide a compelling sweat for fans and bettors alike.
Get the inside track on your NASCAR betting with Covers Experts' Auto Racing Advisor preview and picks for the 2021 South Point 400, which gets underway at 8:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 26.
South Point 400 favorites
Kyle Larson (+330)
He won back in the spring and dominated a similar track at Kansas in May. He’s the favorite for good reason. Larson has five Top-3 finishes in his last six starts on the season.
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
He won this race a few years ago and has nine Top-11 finishes in his last 10 tries on the 1.5-mile track, including six Top-4 efforts and two wins. He’s won 12 races on 1.5-mile tracks since 2016, nearly two times as many as the next-closest driver. He was fourth, first and seventh respectively in the first round of the playoffs.
Joey Logano (+1,100)
He has 10 Top-10 finishes in his last 11 Vegas starts.
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South Point 400 long-shot picks
Brad Keselowski (+1,500)
He has a Top-10 finish in all but one start at Vegas since Penske went to Ford in 2013. He won the fall race in 2018. He was second and third respectively in 2019, and seventh and 13th in 2020, with a runner-up this spring.
Ryan Blaney (+1,400)
Has seven Top-7 finishes in his last nine starts in Vegas. His teammates have each had a Top-10 finish in all but one Vegas start since 2013, too. Blaney has four Top-4 finishes in his last six starts on the season
South Point 400 matchup pick
Ryan Blaney (-115) vs. Brad Keselowski (-105)
Keselowski may have finished runner-up earlier this spring, but he's also had just two Top-5 finishes in his last 18 starts on the season. Blaney, meanwhile, has four Top-4 finishes in his last six starts on the season and three Top 7s in his last four in Vegas.
PREDICTION: Blaney (-115)
South Point 400 fades
Chase Elliott (+800)
He’s had just two career Top 5s on this track, with his last three finishes being 26th, 22nd and 13th respectively.
Kevin Harvick (+1,000)
His Vegas starts are fading. His last three finishes are eighth, 10th and 20th, respectively.
Kurt Busch (+2,500)
Busch won last fall, but that happened due to some luck and was just his second Top 5 in his last 18 Vegas starts.
South Point 400 preview
This may be the second-biggest race of the entire playoffs. With Talladega and the ROVAL looming, you can’t afford to leave Las Vegas behind the eight ball.
Over the last 11 Cup races in Vegas, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano and Kyle Larson have combined to win 10 of them.
Also, Penske, SHR and JGR/Furniture Row have won 11 of the last 13 Vegas races. With those teams making up a majority of the drivers left in the playoff field, the odds of a non-playoff winner are slim to none.
Denny Hamlin scored four stage wins in six tries in the opening round, including a second place in one of the two other results. Kyle Larson had the other two stage wins, a pair of runner-ups, as well as a pair of fourth-place finishes in them, too. Hamlin was first, second and ninth, respectively in the first round in overall finishes, while Larson was second, sixth and first himself.
These are the Top 2 right now, but Larson dominated the spring race on this very track and has five Top 3s in his last six races in general. Hamlin was third in this race last year and fourth in the spring.
Watch out for them.
South Point 400 key stat
21 of the last 23 Cup races in Vegas resulted in a past champion winning. The only non-title winners to have won at Vegas? Carl Edwards (twice) and Kyle Larson (March).
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