It’s a light slate across Major League Baseball today, but even with limited MLB player props on the board, a few home run props are clearly standing out.
As always, price drives the card — and today we’re getting both value and form.
Corbin Carroll and Drake Baldwin check both boxes, offering strong market prices to go along with favorable matchups and hot bats, and I've also found value in another NL East bat to go yard tonight too, highlighting my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, April 2.
- UPDATE: Added Soto HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Corbin Carroll |
+540 |
 Drake Baldwin |
+560 |
 Juan Soto |
+470 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +18025 |
Corbin Carroll (+540)
On a thin slate, Corbin Carroll at +540 stands out as one of the best HR values. Some books have already moved this closer to +350, which is much more in line with fair value, and this number is starting to follow.
He faces Reynaldo López, who missed most of last season. While he looked sharp in his opener, he still allowed a home run, and left-handed hitters have historically had success against him.
A return to peak form would be a surprise, with THE BAT projecting a 4.63 ERA and weaker HR prevention than other models.
Carroll already has two homers this season, and was the difference in a 1-0 win over the Detroit Tigers yesterday. When he’s locked in, he has real MVP-level upside.
Chase Field isn’t a top-tier HR park, but Carroll has already gone deep there twice in three games and gets another strong opportunity at a great price.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, BravesVision
Drake Baldwin (+560)
Drake Baldwin is off to a strong start in his sophomore season, leading his team in multiple offensive categories and matching the rest of the lineup with three home runs entering Thursday.
He’s slugging .773 with a 60% hard-hit rate and is hitting in the two-hole. He's already logged five plate appearances in two of his six games, which is more important than it might seem.
Ryne Nelson allowed two home runs in his season debut and relies heavily on contact to get outs — not an ideal profile against a hitter swinging this well.
On a slate with limited late-game options, getting one of the hottest bats at +500 or better is an easy addition to the card.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, BravesVision
Juan Soto (+470)
Juan Soto is priced at +470, offering a significant edge — roughly 100 points better than the general market and about 70 points above fair value.
The discount comes from the lefty-lefty matchup against Robbie Ray, but Soto has proven he can handle southpaws. The New York Mets' No. 2 hitter went deep yesterday and has recorded a hit in every game this season, showing strong early form.
He also has some familiarity with Ray, with 10 career at-bats.
It’s not the best power environment, but on a slate with limited late-game options, Soto at +425 or better is a clear add to the card.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, NBCSBA
- HR picks: 1-8 SU, -2.8 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Corbin Carroll |
Bet Now +18025 |
| Drake Baldwin |
|
| Juan Soto |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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