Yankees vs Red Sox Props Picks & Best Bets for Sunday Night Baseball

The New York Yankees will try to finish off a three-game sweep of their eternal rivals as they face off against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park for Sunday Night Baseball.

I like the matchup the Boston hitters will have against Yankees starter Will Warren, and I’m also throwing in a bet on Aaron Judge to go deep in my Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions.

Let’s take a look at the best Sunday Night Baseball player props below.

Yankees vs Red Sox Sunday Night Baseball props

• Judge to hit a home run (+245)
• Duran o1.5 total bases (-105)
• Story o0.5 RBI (+105)

Prop #1: Aaron Judge to hit a home run

+245 at Caesars

There’s nothing clever about picking Aaron Judge to go deep. The best hitter in the majors has 47 homers this season, including four in his last five games. The key is figuring out when the relatively tight odds sportsbooks are willing to give us are worth our money.

Tonight is one of those spots. Judge gets to face off against Garrett Crochet, and while the New York Yankees slugger is great against everyone, he’s been especially dominant against left-handed pitching, putting up a monster 1.252 OPS and 13 homers in just 140 plate appearances against southpaws this season. 

Judge has never hit especially well at Fenway Park when it comes to getting hits, but he’s been able to homer plenty there, with two bombs in Boston already this season. And as much as the Boston Red Sox love Crochet, he’s not elite at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing 20 homers on the year, or about one per nine innings.

Overall, this is a solid matchup for our favorite home run prop target. I’m putting a bet on Judge to go yard tonight.

Prop #2: Jarren Duran Over 1.5 total bases

-105 at Caesars

Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran has seen his numbers dip a bit from his All-Star season in 2024, but he’s still been a solid contributor at the top of the lineup. And as with Judge, he also has a solid matchup tonight that plays right into his game.

While Duran struggles against southpaws, he’s an elite hitter when it comes to facing right-handed pitching, hitting .282 with a .876 OPS against righties this year. Tonight, he’ll take the leadoff spot again against Will Warren, who's filled his role as a back-of-the-rotation starter well for the Yankees, but isn’t going to overmatch Duran or anyone else in this lineup.

If you’re looking for recent trends, Duran has picked up 2+ total bases in four of his last five games, picking up an extra base hit in each of those games. Duran has also been far better at Fenway than on the road, hitting .288 with 40 extra-base hits at home. He’s a solid bet at around even money to hit his Over tonight.

Prop #3: Trevor Story Over 0.5 RBI

+105 at Caesars

Trevor Story hasn’t done anything yet in this series, going 0-for-8 over the first two games with the Yankees, but looking beyond this weekend, Story has been the engine driving the Red Sox offense, leading the team with 91 RBI on the year. 

I talked a bit above about how Will Warren shouldn’t trouble this Red Sox lineup. Boston can expect to score runs tonight against Warren, who has a 4.22 ERA and 1.354 WHIP on the year. And we’ve already seen the Red Sox beat up on him twice this year.

In those two starts — both in New York — Warren allowed nine runs in 9 1/3 innings of work, giving up 10 hits, seven walks, and two homers. It’s a small sample size, but it certainly doesn’t give us any reason to think Warren will outperform his overall numbers tonight in Fenway. 

If the Red Sox have anywhere near that success again tonight, the top of the lineup will feast on Warren, and that will leave plenty of opportunities for Story to knock in at least one run, possibly without even needing to get a hit to pick up his RBI.

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