The New York Yankees visit the Boston Red Sox on Thursday night at Fenway Park as -142 favorites with the total set at 8 as they open another rivarly series.
Cam Schlittler leads the American League with a 1.52 ERA and pairs that with the AL's best WHIP at 0.87, while Connelly Early's 3.79 ERA hides a 5.33 xERA and a 14% barrel rate that has not played well at home.
Here are my Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, June 25.
Who will win Yankees vs Red Sox today: Yankees -1.5 (+115)
Connelly Early's 14% barrel rate sits in the 7th percentile in 2026, and his 5.33 xERA against his 3.79 ERA tells you regression is overdue.
That's always going to be an issue against the New York Yankees. He's been particularly hittable at home with a 6.75 ERA in three Fenway starts, and now he draws a Yankees lineup with four players all carrying double-digit barrel rates.
On the other side, Cam Schlittler is Cam Schlitter and a swing-free team is a not a team I wish to fade him against. Play this to -105.
COVERS INTEL: Connelly Early has posted a 6.75 ERA across three home starts at Fenway Park in 2026. That's unlikey to change in a park that has one of the highest run factors in the sport.
Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-105)
You're basically asking here if the Boston Red Sox can score three or more earned runs to push this over the total. I'm not sure they can do that against Schlitter particularly if he works his usual 7 innings. I'd play this to 7.5.
His 88th percentile strikeout rate paired with 0.89 WHIP should suffocate this Boston offense. It's difficult for a team that enters a matchup like this with the 5th highest chase rate in the sport to attack a legitimate Cy Young arm that generates so much swing-and-miss.
The Yankees will score off Early but four-plus runs from one side and one or two off Schlittler keeps this under the number.
- ML/RL bets: 30-27, +5.67 units
- Over/Under bets: 35-23, +15.82 units
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: New York -142 | Boston +135
- Run line: New York -1.5 | Boston +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+6.50 Units / 25% ROI). ind more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Yankees vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Thursday, June 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, NESN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (8-3, 1.71 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Connelly Early (6-5, 3.64 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
