Yankees vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Pitching Edge, Hotter Bats Makes New York The SNB Play

The Yankees are looking to complete their second straight sweep of Boston (and notch their sixth straight win overall) at Fenway Park on Sunday Night Baseball. Our MLB picks and predictions are leaning with New York — with plenty of fireworks expected.

Last Updated: Sep 26, 2021 11:39 AM ET Read Time: 3 min
Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The MLB betting board is capped off today by the New York Yankees taking on the Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball.

After winning the first two games of the series, New York will look to complete the three-game sweep at Fenway, although MLB betting lines have this a matchup between southpaw starters as a coin flip.

Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox on Sunday, September 26, with first pitch set for 7:08 p.m. ET. 

Yankees vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Yankees vs Red Sox odds

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Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jordan Montgomery (6-6, 3.55 ERA): The 6-foot-6 southpaw has been one of New York's steadiest starters all season, having given up more than four earned runs in a start just once since mid-May. He's been particularly solid as of late, posting a 2.84 ERA over his last five starts, although Boston has been able to find some success against him in 2021, tagging him for exactly three runs in three of his four starts against his divisional foe this year.   

Eduaro Rodriguez (11-8, 4.97 ERA): While Montgomery has been a model of consistency for the Yankees, Rodriguez has been a bit more volatile for the Sox in 2021. He's done well to get his ERA under 5.00, where it has sat for more of the year, as he has given up two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts — but the one outlier in that span was six earned runs in 3 2-3 innings. The 28-year-old lefty has made four starts against New York this season, posting a 3.00 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 18 innings, although he departed the last matchup after just one inning due to injury.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: DJ LeMahieu 2B (Day-to-Day), Zack Britton RP (Out).
Red Sox: Kevin Plawecki C (Day-to-Day), Danny Santana UTIL (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Red Sox are 7-1 in their last right games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.

Moneyline pick

Despite trailing Boston by two games for the first wild-card spot heading into the weekend, New York was favored in the first two games of this series. The Yankees took Friday's Game 1 by bombing Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi and then stole yesterday's Game 2 by burning the bullpen, courtesy of a mammoth blast by Giancarlo Stanton (452 feet, to be exact) that turned a 2-1 deficit into a 5-2 lead.

It continues the Jekyll-and-Hyde performances that New York has been doing all season, as following losing three of four to Baltimore and Cleveland, the Yankees are riding a five-game winning streak heading into Sunday night.

One of the things that's helped them during this latest surge is the improved batting with runners in scoring position: New York's .232 season-long average with RISP is the second-worst in the league, but over the last week the Yankees are hitting .272 (10th in MLB) in clutch situations with 18 extra-base hits. They've punished Boston in this situation during the first two games of this series, going 5 for 14 — including Stanton's slam last night.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, are just 2 for 8 with RISP so far as these back-to-back losses has been the equivalent of hitting a brick wall at full speed. Not only did it end their seven-game winning streak but Boston scored at least six runs in every contest (8.4 per game) during that span — and has just six runs total through two games against the Yanks.

Boston will find it tough to put up a big number on Montgomery today, as he's given up one run or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts, while Sox starter Rodriguez doesn't instill quite as much confidence, despite September being his best stretch of pitching in 2021. 

With a slightly better starter, an offense clicking a little better, and also riding a five-game win streak in the head-to-head matchup, it's hard for us to turn down the Yankees at pick'em odds.

PREDICTION: Yankees (-110)

Over/Under pick

Another big driving force for the Yankees during this win streak is their stars' punishing lefty pitchers right now. The aforementioned Stanton is hitting .389 with three homers in 18 at-bats against southpaws during that span, while Gleyber Torres is positng a .476 OBP, while Gio Urshela, Aaron Judge, and Anthony Rizzo are all hitting .286 or better against lefties over the past seven days too.

That's not an enviable position for Rodriguez, who is going to try and keep New York's bats in check, while hoping his bullpen — which has given up five earned runs and has already thrown 9 1-3 innings through the first two games — doesn't implode again.

It's hard to envision the Yankees not putting up at least four or five runs today... which brings us to the question of can Boston do it's part to push this total to double digits?

Simply put: we see it being possible.

While Montgomery has been in a groove lately, Boston has generally had success against the towering New York lefty this season, scoring three earned runs in three of their four matchups against him. Boston has also crushed lefties lately overall, sporting a .273 batting average (fifth in MLB) with 17 home runs over the last 15 days and scoring all three runs (two against Nestor Cortes Jr. in 4 1-3 innings and one off Aroldis Chapman in the 9th) against southpaws yesterday.

The Red Sox offense is too good to stay this quiet, while the Yankees have been bombs away as of late. With a total sitting below double-digits — a situation where the Yankees are 4-2 O/U in their last six and Boston is 5-1-1 in its last seven — we're going to bank on this one getting Over the threshold tonight. 

PREDICTION: Over 9.5 (-115)

Yankees vs Red Sox betting card

  • Yankees ML (-110)
  • Over 9.5 (-115)

Picks made on 9/26/2021 at 11:35 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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