With divisional and wild card playoff spots up for grabs, there's no shortage of exciting MLB prop bets to play this Sunday.
Most people will be sweating NFL bets — but why not add a little MLB sweat to go with it?
We're not going to say no that. We've got three picks to make, so we’re going with three different types of wagers — and keeping it fun for September 26.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Dodgers first five innings team total Over 2.5 (best odds: -125 at DraftKings)
The price is slightly juiced but I’m still taking the Dodgers to score three runs in the first five innings, as Humberto Mejia is on the mound for the Diamondbacks in Chase Field and the roof should be open.
Mejia has made three appearances for Arizona this season since getting called on August 23 and has an xFIP of 5.17 while note posting an ugly 1.80 WHIP. The 24-year-old righty has also given up 16 hits over his last 10 innings and had a .408 BABIP on the year — meaning when batters make contact, it results in a hit more than 40 percent of the time.
The Dodgers lineup has struggled a bit against righties in the last 30 days but they’re in a tight race for the NL West and can’t afford to lose anymore games to the Diamondbacks, after dropping last night's contest.
The Dodgers offense still possesses a number of potent bats, and with Mejia giving up 12 runs on 20 hits in limited action in 2021, bank on the Dodgers to turn things around and post some crooked numbers early.
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (best odds: +110 at BetMGM)
The Astros are on the road Sunday, facing Oakland at the RingCentral Coliseum. It’s known as a pitcher’s park — but no ballpark can help A's starter Paul Blackburn right now.
Blackburn has allowed 27 hits in 15 1-3 innings in September, along with 14 runs and four home runs. The right-hander has a 4.52 xFIP and is striking out just 15.6 percent of batters. Plus, the bullpen is in the bottom third of the league in ERA since August 1.
Lefty hitters have been especially troublesome for Blackburn, posting a .471 wOBA and ISO of .273 in his last 38 plate appearances — and it won't get easier today when the A's face red-hot Houston slugger Kyle Tucker.
The Astros outfielder is hitting .354 with a 1.179 OPS in September, with 16 extra-base hits 57 total bases in 79 at-bats. Plus, in his last 66 plate appearances against righties, he’s got a .273 ISO with a wOBA of .451 while striking out just 9.1 percent of the time. Add in a .362 BAbip and 24.5 percent line-drive rate over that span and I’m confident Tucker will do some damage today.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 home runs (best odds: +225 at DraftKings)
Griffin Jax hasn’t faced the Blue Jays yet in his career — but it hasn’t looked good for the 26-year old righty against the rest of the MLB in 2021: Through 16 games (12 starts), Jax has a 6.75 ERA. Over his last five starts, that's jumped up to a 7.71 ERA — 20 earned runs on 22 hits across 23 1-3 innings, along with seven home runs.
Nearly 40 percent of his batted balls are going airborne, as Jax has a 0.80 groundball/fly ball ratio, and there’s this one guy in the Blue Jays lineup that really should capitalize: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Toronto's MVP candidate is tied for the league lead with 46 homers and has a .333 ISO and .453 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days — while striking out just 10.8 percent of the time. Jax has also really struggled when it comes to giving up hard contact against righties, yielding with a .392 wOBA and ISO of .340.
There’s no better pitcher to face than a right-hander that is fly ball (and home run) prone, so let’s wager on Vlad to hit number 47.
MLB betting card for September 26
- Dodgers first five innings team total Over 2.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
- Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at BetMGM)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 home runs (+225 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 9/26/2021 at 9:16 a.m. ET
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