Yankees vs Rays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Hobbled Bombers Miss Target

The New York Yankees will try to slow down baseball’s best team when they visit the Tampa Bay Rays for a three-game series beginning on Friday night.

The Yankees (17-15) bounced back from a four-game losing streak by picking up two wins in Cleveland against the Guardians on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Rays (26-6) are coming off a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who previously had the best record in the National League.

Even if Tampa Bay can’t keep up its current torrid pace, all signs are that they are the team to beat right now in Major League Baseball. We’ll discuss whether they can take care of business on Friday in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Rays on May 5. 

Yankees vs Rays odds

Yankees vs Rays predictions

Even through just 32 games of the season, few teams have been more dominant in MLB history than the 2023 Rays. Tampa Bay leads the league in runs per game (6.56), and has also allowed the fewest runs per game (3.00). When you see those numbers, you don’t need more advanced metrics to know that this is a great team — or at least a good team that is playing well.

That early success has allowed the Rays to build a 4.5-game lead in the AL East. But it isn’t the Yankees who are in second place. In fact, New York finds itself at the bottom of the divisional standings, a full nine games behind Tampa Bay.

The Yankees are still above .500, but are certainly playing below expectations. What’s gone wrong for New York? While the pitching staff has been outstanding, an offense that was supposed to be loaded with powerful bats has sputtered through April and early May. The Yankees are scoring just 3.94 runs per game, with a paltry .677 OPS on the season. If you adjust for ballpark factors, New York’s offense is performing about as well as that of the 6-26 Oakland Athletics. 

That’s not entirely a reflection of how well New York’s offense can perform at full strength. With Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and others on the injured list, we’re looking at a pale imitation of what the Bronx Bombers can bring to the table. Still, it’s the reality that the Yankees will be dealing with tonight when they face off against Tampa Bay starter Yonny Chirinos.

This will be the first start of the season for Chirinos, who has a 0.64 ERA in 14 innings out of the bullpen in four appearances this season. But the 29-year-old has spent the majority of his MLB career as an effective starter for Tampa Bay, even if he’s never stayed in the rotation for the entire season. 

Still, you have to respect a pitcher who has given up a total of one run on 13 hits over 21 innings since the start of the 2022 season. It also says a lot about the Tampa Bay rotation that Chirinos hasn’t been able to permanently find a spot there, though his career has also been derailed at times due to serious injuries.

Assuming Chirinos gives the Rays even a few good innings tonight, the Yankees are in trouble. New York is starting rookie pitcher Jhony Brito against Tampa Bay, and while the 25-year-old rookie still has a bright future, he doesn’t seem up to facing elite MLB competition just yet. 

The Rays should get off to a strong start tonight and never look back. If the Yankees are even in this game, that will be an accomplishment, and I seriously doubt they can keep this one close. Let’s take Tampa Bay on the run line at plus money.

My best bet: Rays -1.5 (+115 at WynnBET)

Yankees vs Rays moneyline analysis

Tampa Bay opened tonight’s game as a -194 favorite. As of noon on Friday, that number has come down a bit, with Rays -180 being the most common number on the market, as well as the best one out there if you want to bet on the home team. If you want to bet on the Yankees, you can get odds as long as +160 at some sites.

The Rays have been the best team in baseball this year, and have treated bettors incredibly well, beating the moneyline by over 17.5 units on the season. The Yankees have been slightly disappointing, losing about one unit in 2023. 

Tampa Bay is the better team. It is playing at home, and while Chirinos hasn’t started any games this year, he still has a much better track record than Brito. In fact, while Chirinos has only operated out of the bullpen, his average appearance has been 3.2 innings — exactly the same length as the average Brito start.

Tampa Bay should have little trouble winning this game. Given how many key Yankees are out with injuries tonight, the Rays should be at least a 2-1 favorite, if not longer. I’m comfortable taking the Rays on the moneyline, though as I wrote about above, I’m even more interested in betting the run line in tonight’s game.

Yankees vs Rays Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game started at 8.5 runs, and has stayed there at every book we follow. The Over is the slight favorite at that number: while you can find -110 on the Over, you can get odds as good as +100 on the Under tonight.

The anemic Yankees offense has played strongly below the total this year, with the Under going 21-10-1 so far on the season. Tampa has had the opposite trend, with the Over going 17-12-3 in Rays games this season.

It’s the New York offense that has me thinking the Under is the smart play tonight. Chirinos and the Rays should be able to deal with a wounded Yankees lineup, so it’s hard to see New York scoring many runs over the course of the game. 

The question is just how much the Rays can get to Brito and the New York bullpen. I expect Tampa Bay to jump on the Yankees starter, but things should settle down after that, at least a little bit. 

I don’t love betting this market tonight, because I could see the Rays winning in an absolute blowout. However, the most likely scenario is that Tampa Bay puts up somewhere around five or six runs, while largely shutting down the Yankees throughout the game. I’m leaning towards the Under here at even money, but this isn’t a market I’ll be touching tonight.

Yankees vs Rays game info

Yankees vs Rays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jhony Brito (2-3, 5.56 ERA): While Brito came into the season as one of the better prospects in the Yankees organization, he wasn’t expected to be a major part of the New York rotation this early. Injuries have thrust the 25-year-old into a full-time starting role, however, and while he’s struggling, he has given the Yankees some solid innings and shown stretches of promise. Most recently, Brito went five innings against the Texas Rangers, allowing two runs on four hits.

Yonny Chirinos (1-0, 0.64 ERA): Chirinos has suffered through two serious injuries already in his career, needing Tommy John surgery and then fracturing his elbow during rehab in late 2021. Yet, the Rays are still high on the Venezuelan, who has a 3.38 career ERA in 255.1 innings of work. This will be his first start of the 2023 season, after working exclusively out of the bullpen in four appearances. His most recent appearance was his longest, as he went 4.2 innings, allowing just one run on three hits against the Chicago White Sox on April 29.

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