The reeling New York Yankees will renew the Subway Series with the New York Mets on this Independence Day afternoon.
We're unsure who will come out on top, but we do like betting on a particular pitcher today. My Yankees vs. Mets predictions break it down as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet on the Fourth of July.
Yankees vs Mets prediction
My Yankees vs Mets best bet: Marcus Stroman Over 14.5 outs (-140 at DraftKings)
This is kinda it for veteran Marcus Stroman.
The righty will make his return to the majors after a rehab stint, and poor play sent him down for a little over a month. And now the 34-year-old's next few starts could very well determine his New York Yankees future.
While I'm not buying him returning to his dominant early career stuff anytime soon, I am buying in the short-term of him delivering a quality start today against the New York Mets. We're grabbing the low outs total to be exceeded as our best bet.
While the spot and motivational angle drove me to this, there's supporting data to make the bet actionable. The biggest of those reasons is twofold: expected positive regression (the expected ERA is three runs lower than the actual ERA) and inducing ground balls. Inducing the ground ball has been the one thing that Stroman has done at an elite level this season at a 47% clip.
He can lean on it here against a Mets group with the highest ground ball rate in the majors at 46.8%. In other words, if there was a spot for Stroman to excel, this is it.
Yankees vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Marcus Stroman Over 14.5 outs
Marcus Stroman Under 3.5 strikeouts
Yankees first inning moneyline
We paired the Under strikeouts for Stroman to start things off in this SGP. Although we're not seeing a correlated price, the two events are still correlated. If Stroman is giving good length today, it will be because he managed to induce a high clip of ground ball contact. It won't be because he's getting swing-and-miss.
We finished the parlay off with the Yankees' first-inning moneyline. The Mets recalled Justin Hagenmann from Triple-A to make a start in what is likely a bullpen game. I'll fade him in his first start back from the minors, with already a preexisting issue of giving up too many hard-hit balls.
Yankees vs Mets odds
Yankees vs Mets live odds
Yankees vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +105 | Mets -125
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Yankees vs Mets trend
The Yankees have cashed the Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+13.12 units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets.
How to watch Yankees vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Friday, 7-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network, YES, SNY |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Marcus Stroman (1-1, 8.16 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Paul Blackburn (0-3, 7.71 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mets latest injuries
Yankees vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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