Yankees vs Mariners Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cortes in Control in Early Innings

It's been a rough year for Nestor Cortes Jr. overall, but there have been some positives to take away. Our MLB betting picks believe there's a significant edge to be had with Cortes and the visiting Yankees early on.

Last Updated: May 30, 2023 11:25 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Nestor Cortes New York Yankees MLB
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The New York Yankees face off against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night. The Yankees took the first contest in this three-game set last night, but remain six games behind the Rays in the highly-competitive AL East. Meanwhile, the Mariners are two games above .500 as they look to return to the postseason after getting swept in the ALDS last year. 

MLB betting lines opened with the M's as -130 home favorites and the Over/Under at 7.5 for today's clash. Here are my best free Yankees vs. Mariners MLB picks and predictions for May 30.

Yankees vs Mariners odds

Yankees vs Mariners predictions

The Yankees are sending Nestor Cortes Jr. to the mound today, and he has looked shaky this year after an excellent 2022 campaign. However, he tends to get off to extremely good starts before getting into trouble during the middle innings.

Cortes has a 2.10 ERA with an OBA of .179 through the first three innings this year, and had a 2.04 ERA with a .180 OBA in those frames last year. 

The Mariners will have Logan Gilbert on the hill, and while he's been efficient during the second inning, he has struggled during the first and third frames. Gilbert has a 9.00 ERA with an OBA of .341 in the first inning, while pitching to a 4.50 ERA during the third inning. 

Seattle has a slugging percentage of just .397 through the first three innings, and has been even worse against southpaws like Cortes. Cortes might get into trouble when he's navigating through the M's lineup for the second and third time, but I like being able to back the Yankees at plus money on the first three innings moneyline tonight.

My best bet: Yankees first three innings moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)

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Yankees vs Mariners moneyline analysis

The Yankees beat the Mariners 10-4 last night to improve to 33-23, but they are in third place in the AL East standings behind the Rays and Orioles. 

Cortes has struggled this season, but his expected ERA of 3.69 is significantly better than his ERA of 5.30. He was extremely productive last year but has been giving up far more hard contact, with his hard-hit rate rising from 34.7% to 41%. 

Gilbert has a sizzling 2.87 expected ERA through 10 starts, and he does an excellent job of striking out batters while limiting walks. However, his Statcast numbers are subpar, with his hard hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate all ranking in the bottom half of pitchers. 

The M's are 24th in the majors with an OPS of .696, and they've been even worse against southpaws like Cortes, ranking 26th with an OPS of .671. The run-suppressing nature of T-Mobile Park certainly doesn't help their batting numbers, but they haven't been productive at the dish away from home either, and are striking out at the fourth-highest rate in the majors. 

The Yankees are 14th in the majors with an OPS of .736 and have been extremely productive in May, where they have a .796 OPS. 

Last year's AL MVP Aaron Judge (leading the majors with a .678 slugging percentage) has been carrying New York's offense, with Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton on the IL for a few more weeks. Meanwhile, Anthony Rizzo (team-high .304 batting average while ranking second in RBI and total bases) is questionable with a wrist injury after sitting out yesterday. 

Yankees vs Mariners Over/Under analysis

Cortes has been shaky this season, but with the Mariners struggling to hit lefties and the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park, this contest opened with a low total of 7.5 before ticking down to 7.

Both of these bullpens have been among the best in the majors, with the Yankees ranked first in ERA (2.95), and the Mariners fifth (3.18).

That said, the Yankees' offense has been red-hot lately, plating 5.44 runs per game in 27 contests this month.

They've also shredded Gilbert in the only two starts he's had against them during this career — back-to-back outings last summer. He gave up three homers and six runs in 5 1/3 innings at Yankee Stadium on August 2, before surrendering 10 hits and seven runs in four innings at home on August 8.

Yankees vs Mariners game info

Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date: Tuesday, May 30, 2023
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers

Nestor Cortes Jr. (4-2, 5.30 ERA): The southpaw had a breakout season with the Yankees last year, going 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP across 28 starts. However, he has gotten off to a brutal start this season with a 4.78 FIP and 1.27 WHIP through 10 starts. In his previous outing, he surrendered four runs in six innings versus the Orioles.

Logan Gilbert (3-2, 3.75 ERA): Gilbert put together an impressive sophomore season in 2022, going 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 32 starts. He has a 2.79 FIP with a sizzling 0.92 WHIP in 10 starts this year. He's coming off a strong performance against the struggling A's, allowing just three hits and two runs in eight innings. 

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Trend to know

Not only are the Yankees 35-16 in the last 51 meetings with the Mariners, but they are 36-16 in their previous 52 trips to Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Mariners


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