There’s a beautiful slate of MLB games on tap for Memorial Day.
The nightcap features a series opener between the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park.
Both teams enter in fine form having won seven of their last 10 games, respectively.
I break down Game 1 and provide my best bet below in my MLB betting picks for Yankees vs. Mariners on Monday, May 29.
Yankees vs Mariners odds
Yankees vs Mariners predictions
Bryce Miller has been phenomenal for the Seattle Mariners, striking out 28 batters while walking just three across 31 1/3 innings. His 0.51 WHIP is the lowest figure for any pitcher in MLB history across the first five starts of their career.
He’s shut out his opponents in three of his five outings — Oakland, Detroit, and Houston — and he’s allowed just four earned in his other two starts (Atlanta, Oakland), so he’s been effective in every outing.
This level of dominance obviously cannot be expected in perpetuity, but by now, it’s clear that he’s a high-level pitcher. His 2.63 xERA does call for a bit of regression, but his 1.88 FIP is elite.
His Statcast numbers are tremendous, as he ranks in the 98th percentile in both fastball spin rate and walk rate. He’s managed to limit hard contact (83rd percentile in hard-hit rate) while having swing-and-miss stuff (81st percentile in chase rate). Therefore, it should come as no surprise that his xERA/xwOBA is in the 92nd percentile. Seattle has found itself a good one.
His pitching counterpart, Domingo German, has a decent 3.98 xERA and should enter this one well-rested after serving his 10-game suspension for using a foreign substance.
Neither lineup has been very noteworthy. The New York Yankees have been perfectly middle-of-the-road as a lineup this year, ranking 15th in wRC+ (100) and 20th in wOBA (.314). Their recent performance isn’t much different than their season-long numbers, as they check in at 19th in wRC+ (96) and 20th in wOBA (.308) in the last 10 days.
Will that be the team to break Miller’s trend of cashing five straight Unders to start his career? I’m not so sure.
The Mariners have similar numbers at the dish in 2023, ranking 16th in wRC+ (99) and 24th in wOBA (.307). They have been slightly better recently, checking in at 11th in wRC+ (105) and 13th in wOBA (.324) across the last 10 days — still nothing to fear.
Both teams have elite bullpens — the Yankees lead the Big Leagues with a 2.99 ERA in relief while the Mariners aren’t far behind at 3.16.
There has been some early movement on the Under and I’m in agreement with that money. I'm backing the Under 8 at -112 and would play it down to 7.5.
My best bet: Under 8 (-112 at Unibet)
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Yankees vs Mariners moneyline analysis
The Mariners are a slight favorite of between -130 and -140, depending on where you shop. The best comeback available on the Yankees is +120.
The Yankees have been hot on the road, winning four straight away games. They’re in a groove overall right now, winning seven of their last 10 games and 14 of their last 20. They've typically performed well in this matchup, taking 35 of the last 51 meetings in Seattle.
The Mariners are also in a groove, however, winning six of their last seven overall. They hit right-handed pitching well enough, going 5-1 in their last six games against a right-handed starter while ranking fifth in wRC+ (120) in the last 10 days.
It might seem odd at first glance that the Mariners are favored in this game, but a closer inspection reveals why that is the case. They have the starting pitching advantage and lineup advantage, as the Yankees haven’t hit right-handed pitching quite as well recently (16th in wRC+ across the last 10 days).
Yankees vs Mariners Over/Under analysis
Most books are offering a flat 8 as the total with the Under slightly juiced. Be sure to shop around using our odds tool, however, as 7.5 is also available at current.
Weather should not have a substantial impact on the total. Current forecasts call for a temperature of 67 degrees at the time of first pitch with winds of 8.1 mph blowing to the first base side.
Both teams have played to the Under this season — the Yankees are 25-29-1 O/U while the Mariners are 25-28 O/U. That’s been especially true when these two pitchers have been on the mound, as New York is 3-6 O/U in German starts while Seattle is 0-5 O/U in Miller’s five starts. Add them up and you have a combined 3-11 O/U record for these two starting pitchers.
This has been a profitable range to back Seattle Unders — the Mariners are 2-8 O/U in their last 10 games when the total is set between 7 and 8.5. They’ve also been an Under train following a win (3-9 O/U in their last 12), against a right-handed starter (2-6 O/U in their last eight), and at home (3-8 O/U in their last 11).
The Yankees’ splits aren’t quite as drastic, but they’ve cashed four Unders in their last five games against a right-handed starter. They’re also 1-4 O/U in their last five away games.
Looking back at past history, these teams have combined to go 19-42-5 O/U in their last 66 meetings overall and 10-23-1 O/U in their last 34 meetings in Seattle.
Yankees vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Monday, May 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, RSNW |
Starting pitchers
Domingo German (2-3, 3.75 ERA): The right-hander makes his return after a 10-game suspension for using a foreign substance. His last appearance was on May 16, which was short-lived as he lasted three innings before being ousted for using too much sticky stuff. He sports a 3.98 xERA and 4.20 FIP on the year and has been much better at home (3.19 ERA) than on the road (4.76 ERA).
Bryce Miller (3-1, 1.15 ERA): The 24-year-old prospect has lived up to the hype and much more to start his career. He’s struck out 28 batters while issuing just three walks, and his 0.51 WHIP is the lowest for any pitcher in MLB history after their first five starts. His stuff is electric, as he ranks in the 98th percentile in terms of fastball spin rate.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
Seattle is 0-5 O/U in the five games Bryce Miller has started this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners
