The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday.
The Bronx Bombers had to get through Boston in the AL Wild Card Series, and now they face another division rival in Toronto. New York is a -155 favorite to win the series, but my Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions are backing the home side to take Game 1.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this postseason clash on October 4.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Game 1 predictions
Who will win Yankees vs Blue Jays Game 1
These teams had identical 94-68 records during the regular season, but the Toronto Blue Jays won the division because they took the season series.
The Jays went 8-5 against the New York Yankees, with a run differential of +11. They’ll be at home and well-rested, which combined with their pitching edge, should be enough to take Game 1.
Yankees vs Blue Jays best bet
Blue Jays moneyline (-125)
It's tough to figure out exactly how good this Toronto Blue Jays squad is. Are they the club that was the best hitting team in the majors in July and August or the squad that couldn't get on base in the final two weeks of the regular season?
I think they are somewhere closer to that better version we saw coming out of the All-Star break. The injury to Bo Bichette hurts but the Jays still have a dangerous lineup with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk.
The Yankees got some stellar starting pitching in the AL Wild Card series but now they're at the bottom of their rotation. They'll go with Luis Gil (4.79 xERA) for Game 1.
The Jays counter with their ace Kevin Gausman who had a 3.59 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP through 32 starts.
Gausman has been lights out in his last two starts against the Yankees. He held them to four hits and a run in seven innings on July 21 before pitching eight innings of one-run ball against them on September 5.
Regardless of who the Yankees opt to start, they'll be at a disadvantage on the mound. Back the well-rested Jays to take Game 1 at home.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
I have more faith in Gausman than Gil but it's still tough to completely fade a Yankees squad that had the most productive offense in the majors during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Jays led the majors in OPS (.799) and runs per game (5.42) since the All-Star break.
Both bullpens have also struggled with Blue Jays relievers pitching to a 4.63 ERA since the All-Star while Yankees relievers posting a 4.78 ERA over the same period. That has me leaning towards the Over 7.5.
Springer has excellent reverse platoon and home/away splits, slugging .588 against righties and .593 at Rogers Centre. He's been on fire since the start of July, slashing .358/.441/.667 with 162 total bases across 62 games.
Yankees vs Blue Jays SGP
- Blue Jays ML
- Over 7.5
- George Springer Over 1.5 total bases
Yankees vs Blue Jays home run pick for Game 1
Daulton Varsho (+450)
Varsho smashed 20 home runs in just 71 games during the regular season. He slugs .591 with the platoon advantage which he will have against Gil or Warren.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: New York +105 | Toronto -125
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-190) | Toronto Over 7.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Yankees vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+19.35 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Yankees vs Blue Jays and Game 1 info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| First pitch | 4:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Luis Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA) |
Yankees vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Yankees vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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