The Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers will look to wrap up a three-game series tonight in a decisive matchup.
The pair have split the two games of the series. Last night, the White Sox won comfortably when the Dodgers' bullpen stumbled down the stretch. Each of these teams is looking up in their respective divisions, though their scenarios are different. The Dodgers sit three games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. In comparison, the White Sox are further (5.5 games) behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. White Sox on Thursday, June 15.
White Sox vs Dodgers odds
White Sox vs Dodgers predictions
I'm rolling with the Dodgers as my best bet tonight in a rare instance of me taking on some juice in a baseball game. The market prices vary, but I got -140 at DraftKings, the best price at publication. It also was a decisive edge on my number of -184, and easily the best bet on the board for this game because of that.
White Sox starter Dylan Cease will grab the attention in this matchup, for better or worse. But what stuck out to me was the pitcher on the other side and one single number. The pitcher is Michael Grove for the Dodgers, and the number is .193 — the batting average that White Sox batters have against power pitchers this season. They'll see one tonight in Grove, who delivers the four-seam fastball nearly 44% of the time with an average velocity of 95 mph.
I like how this matchup shakes out for Grove. His atrocious ERA has been due to bad luck (see an expected ERA of around 4.00) and his issues with the fastball. On that pitch, batters have hit over .350 with an expected batting average virtually identical to it.
Not only do the White Sox struggle against power pitchers, but they also struggle against the fastball in general, and that's a welcomed sight for Grove, who doesn't see those teams that often. The lineup that Chicago will roll out tonight will have just two players batting at or above league average. This should signal a chance for Grove to have some more comfortable innings. We also have the angle of some looming positive regression that has a good chance of occurring tonight.
On the other side, Cease is going through some more extensive struggles, and no team in baseball can highlight those struggles more than the Dodgers.
Cease has a walk rate in the Bottom 25% of baseball. As we've heavily documented, the Dodgers have the most patient hitters in baseball and rank first in walk rate.
Along with the free pass issue, Cease has struggled with hard-hit balls at a rate in the Bottom 10% of baseball. The Dodgers aren't the team you want to see when that's an issue. L.A. is one of the two teams in baseball that sit in the Top 3 of both hard-hit and barrel rates. The only team that comes close to the Dodgers in such metrics that Cease has faced is the Tampa Bay Rays. He met them twice this season and failed to reach five innings in each instance.
Grab the Dodgers tonight. We're getting a rare discount on them with some significant value.
My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (-140 at DraftKings)
White Sox vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Michael Grove to record a win
Dylan Cease Under 16.5 outs
Luis Robert has over 1.5 bases
The Dodgers moneyline is essentially anchoring our same-game parlay, but we're taking it a step further.
We're getting some great value here on Grove to record a win. I understand why, too. After all, we are backing a pitcher with an ERA over 8.00. However, I talked earlier about why he could have some success tonight. That could be enough to propel him to a five-inning showing, and if that happens, I like the Dodgers to be in a position to grab the win.
That leads me to the next leg of Under 16.5 outs for Cease. That one is a simple play. I mentioned earlier that the Rays were the most comparable team power metric-wise to the Dodgers that Cease has faced. I also said he didn't reach the fifth inning in either of those starts. Why can't that happen again?
Lastly, we're throwing in Luis Robert to go over 1.5 bases for the tremendous non-correlated multiplier he provides. He's likely to see some fastballs, and while most of his teammates have struggled against them, he absolutely hasn't. Robert leads his team in that respect with a slugging percentage of .963 against four-seamers this season.
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White Sox vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers are the best bet tonight. When you factor in the price and matchup, it becomes too apparent that there's no better one on the MLB odds board.
One trend working in our favor is that the Dodgers are clinical after a loss, and trending to have one of the best records in team history. L.A. has won 69% of its games following a loss this season, a second-best mark in baseball.
As for the total tonight, I'll likely stay off of it pregame.
I'll concede that there are more scenarios than not where this goes Over. It's possible that I've overestimated Grove's matchup tonight, the positive regression doesn't come, and the Dodgers have to slug themselves to a victory (which they are quite capable of doing). Still, my projections don't see much value on a total here with the same number that oddsmakers have given us at 9.
Grove's ability to navigate things early will tell me a lot. If he can deliver a spotless first inning, I'll consider grabbing the White Sox team total Under live — even if it means a little lost value.
The trends point convincingly towards a side on the total. The White Sox's last four games against a right-handed starter have all gone Under. When the two teams have faced off in general, the Under has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings, including four of the previous five times in Dodger Stadium.
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Trend to know
The White Sox are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Dodgers
White Sox vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, June 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.38 ERA): If we're going off past history, it's undoubtedly been a disappointing season for Cease. His fastball hasn't been as effective as in years past, and he's seen batters hit .245 against it. Where it's really been felt, however, is in his hard-hit rate. That metric sits in the Bottom 8% of baseball, and many of those struggles come from hits off the fastball. Cease is still an elite strikeout pitcher, but those struggles multiply when he's not getting those chases outside the zone.
Michael Grove (0-2, 8.28 ERA): Grove is not as bad as his ERA suggests. As a matter of fact, I am confident in that assessment. Still, we must evaluate what we've seen so far; none of it has been pretty. Grove's only "good" start this season came against the Chicago Cubs, who swing against everything they see and don't hit fastballs too well. His last two starts have seen him surrender four earned runs in each against the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees. I'm backing him today, but it's more of a reflection of his matchup than what we've seen from Grove himself.
