White Sox vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Jays Might be Flying South Soon

The Blue Jays were hot, until they weren't. With Toronto's lineup mired in a massive home-stretch slump, can they be counted on to topple the AL Central leaders? Find out who takes this rubber match with our White Sox vs Blue Jays picks.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
Aug 25, 2021 • 08:47 ET • 4 min read
Lucas Giolito MLB Chicago White Sox
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox will meet for the third straight day as both teams have taken a win to begin this four-game set.

The Jays (3-7 SU L10) fell behind early last night and never recovered in a 5-2 loss and now the high-powered offense has fallen on tough times, averaging just 2.2 runs per game over their last five. The Sox (5-5 SU L10) have a comfortable 10-game lead in the A.L. Central while Toronto is 5.5 games from the final Wild Card spot.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays for Wednesday, August 25.

White Sox vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON        
Date: Wednesday, August 25, 2021
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: Rogers Sportsnet, NBCSCH

White Sox vs Blue Jays odds

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White Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.77 ERA): Giolito has recorded a win in just one of his last six starts and owns a 4.30 ERA across four starts this month. Giolito has eaten a ton of innings for the Sox this year but has given up his fair share of free bases and long balls. He has yet to see the Jays this year and owns a 3.77 ERA on the road in 2021.

Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.79 ERA): Ray enters Wednesday’s rubber match as the No. 4 betting favorite to capture the AL Cy Young at +1,000. He sits third in the A.L. in K/9 among qualified pitchers and sits second in ERA behind Chicago’s Lance Lynn. The pending free agent has a 2.01 ERA through seven second-half starts, with opponents posting a .577 OPS versus the lefty over that stretch. He’s seen the White Sox once this year, back in early June, and spun 6 1-3 innings of one-run ball and struck out a season-high 13 Chicago batters. He’s allowed more than two earned runs just once since July 1.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

White Sox: Tim Anderson SS (questionable), Yasmani Grandal C (out), Adam Engel CF (out).
Blue Jays: George Springer OF (out), Cavan Biggio IF (out), Danny Jansen C (out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Blue Jays.

Moneyline pick

Getting a pulse on these Blue Jays has not been an easy thing over the last two weeks. They cleaned up over their last homestand, where they went 9-2 SU, and were in contention for the Wild Card, but a 3-6 SU road trip followed by a 1-2 SU series versus the Tigers has them on the playoff cusp.

The starting pitching hasn’t been the problem of late for the Jays and that trend should continue into Wednesday, with Robbie Ray taking the mound. His starts haven’t equaled wins, as Toronto is 12-12 SU in his 24 starts this year, but Ray has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year and has become the most consistent starter in this rotation. It’s the offense and bullpen that have been letting the fans down of late.

The Jays have struggled to come up with that big hit as they went 1 for 31 with RISP versus the Tigers in a three-game set followed by 1 for 10 RISP on Monday and 3 for 9 yesterday versus Chicago. Ever since George Springer hit the infirmary, this loaded offense has produced just 3.75 runs per game and is 3-5 SU, which includes four losses to the Nationals and Tigers. 

The Toronto bullpen got it done on Monday, but that seems like an outlier with the way the relievers have given things away of late. The Jays’ relievers own a 4.46 ERA this month, which is a bottom-10 mark in baseball, and have picked up six losses in August.

Since Iowa, Chicago has shown a knack in winning late games, and if the last handful of Jays’ games are any indication, this match will come down to a big moment in the later innings. Toronto is 9-14 SU in one-run games and 2-8 SU in extra innings this year. With the combination of the Jays bullpen and the suddenly cold offense, we have to take the team that is paying +325 to win the American League versus the team paying +3,000. 

Chicago batters are a combined 8 for 24 versus Ray, as Tim Anderson is slashing .338/.338/.606 with five homers over his last 14 games. He has missed the last three games with a leg injury and, if he does miss a fourth Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and Jose Abreu all have OPS north of .900 over the last two weeks and should be able to pick up the slack. The trio finished 8 for 15 last night.

Chicago hits lefties well, too. They sit top-five in OPS versus LHP and have a 111 wRC+ against southpaws which is the third-best mark in the A.L. If Toronto doesn't get more than six innings out of Ray, they don’t have enough good arms in the pen to toss three solid innings.

Give us the road dogs at even money.

PREDICTION: Chicago ML (+100)

Over/Under pick

Betting on the Under with the Jays has been profitable of late, as they are 3-10-2 O/U in their last 15 home games. The offense has been cold and the starting pitching has been the third-best in baseball this month with a 3.01 ERA in August. 

Coming into yesterday’s game, the Springer-less offense was a disturbing 2 for 41 RISP over its last four games, good for a 0.048 batting average. They’ve had opportunities, but the young core has failed to pull through. Considering this is the first full 162 game schedule a lot of the young Toronto batters have dealt with, fatigue could be playing a major factor in the run production of these late summer days.

Ray should keep this Under in check as long as he is on the mound. The last time he faced this lineup, he struck out 13 Chicago batters and walked none en route to a 6-1 loss. The Under has hit in all five of the lefty’s previous five starts and he's 4-14 O/U over his last 18 starts. He has also tossed 15 innings across his last two starts, which is great news with a trash bullpen behind him.

Giolito has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts and comes into this matchup at the perfect time, with Vladdy hitting .222 over his last seven games and Bo Bichette slashing .226/.273/.258 over his last 14 contests. This Toronto order is running out of gas at the finish line.

Taking the bullpen out of this equation might be the smart thing to do. Getting the first five innings Under at 4.5 (-115) is where we’re standing in regards to a total bet, but we don't hate the full-game Under 8.5, either.

PREDICTION: F5 Under 4.5 (-115)

White Sox vs Blue Jays betting card

  • Chicago ML (+100)
  • F5 Under 4.5 (-115)

Picks made on 8/25/2021 at 5:15 a.m. ET

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