It’s Game 2 of the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins series tonight in the Bronx, and my Twins vs. Yankees predictions detail why I believe the Bombers' bats will stay hot after they fired the opening salvo last evening.
Read on for my free MLB picks for Wednesday, June 5.
Twins vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Yankees team total Over 4.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s been a while, but tonight we have a two-unit play in baseball as I see a significant edge against the number on the New York Yankees team total Over 4.5.
Perhaps manager Aaron Boone saw this offense continuing to catch fire when he spoke to the media about two weeks ago.
“It’s got a chance to be a special lineup,” Boone told the assembled media a few weeks ago as the team became healthy.
This New York offense has been the best in baseball for a month now. The Yankees will enter today ranking first in wRC+, wOBA, and SLG. In addition, they are only one of two teams ranking in the Top 5 in terms of barrel rate and hard-hit rate. They are in a position to explode today.
The Yankees will face Minnesota Twins starter Chris Paddack. He has the two-fold issue I always look for when facing the Yankees as he ranks in the Bottom 25% in both hard-hit and barrel rates. As mentioned multiple times this season, that’s not an issue you want to have against the Yankees.
Paddack has faced two teams that rank in the Top 5 in barrel rate: the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers. He gave up nine runs against the O's in his worst start of the year and then three against the Dodgers. Tonight, he’ll face the team ranking first in barrel rate. In this case, I think some causation does equal correlation.
Give me the Yankees Team Total of Over 4.5 tonight. I’m calculating roughly a 4% edge, and I love this spot for New York facing a pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact.
Twins vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees team total Over 4.5
Twins +1.5
We’re getting a nice multiplier here on this same-game parlay. I’ve talked about Paddack’s issues enough, but issues on the other side can keep the Twins close.
Carlos Rodon will take the mound for the Yankees this evening and is due for some negative regression, given that his metrics are screaming that it’s coming. The Twins should match up favorably against him with some of the best-expected slash numbers in baseball against lefties.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Yankees odds
Twins vs Yankees live odds
Twins vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-130) | New York -1.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +155 | New York -190
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Twins vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- We’ve seen action on the team opposing New York for the first time in at least a month. This moneyline price has dropped significantly since the opening of -190 and is now priced around -175 at most sportsbooks.
- The Yankees have owned the Twins over the recent head-to-head matchups, going 7-3 in that period.
- The Yankees have the best record in baseball and one of the longest winning streaks to boot at six.
- The Twins have been an Under team lately, with eight of its last 10 games going that way.
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Twins vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the F5 Team Total Over in 28 of their last 39 games (+16.29 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees
Twins vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, Amazon Prime Video |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Chris Paddack (4-2, 4.57 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (7-2, 3.09 ERA) |
Twins vs Yankees latest injuries
Twins vs Yankees weather
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