On Thursday afternoon, there is a three-game AL Central series set to conclude with the Chicago White Sox hosting the Minnesota Twins.
After one of the most embarrassing starts to the season in franchise history, Chicago has now rattled off three straight wins, and looks to complete the series sweep of the first-place Twins.
Will the White Sox take care of business yet again, or can Minnesota get back in the win column? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs White Sox on Thursday, May 4.
Twins vs White Sox odds
Twins vs White Sox predictions
Taking the mound for the Minnesota Twins in this contest is right-hander Pablo Lopez. While Lopez is a strong pitcher, his strikeout total at 6.5 is set too high in this matchup.
After a dominant start to the campaign, Lopez has gotten shelled in back-to-back starts against two weak offenses in the Kansas City Royals and the Washington Nationals. Over those two outings, the right-hander possesses a staggering 9.90 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP.
There is no denying that Lopez is a strong strikeout pitcher, which is why he ranks in the 87th percentile in K% (31.1%) this season and has gone Over 6.5 punchouts in five of his six starts. However, I am not sold that those results are sustainable moving forward.
First of all, Lopez has never finished a season with a K% north of 27.5%. Secondly, he ranks in the 77th percentile in Whiff% this season, which is still good, but does not necessarily match his ranking in K%, and means he could be getting the benefit of calls going in his favor to start the year.
Furthermore, the Chicago White Sox are a tough lineup to strike out. In 2022, the White Sox ranked seventh in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
While that ranking has taken a slight step back this season due to Chicago’s pathetic performance, the White Sox still rank in the top half of the league in K% when facing right-handers. This avoidance of the strikeout could continue against Lopez, a guy who possesses a good-but-not-great 23.5 K% and 22.4 Whiff% against this current Chicago roster (34 plate appearances).
Looking at the White Sox projected starting lineup for Thursday, five of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 21% this season. With Lopez’s recent poor form, it could be another quick outing for the right-hander.
My best bet: Lopez Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
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Twins vs White Sox moneyline analysis
I would lean toward the Twins’ moneyline in this contest, but am not confident enough to pull the trigger. Even though we are fading Lopez’s strikeout prop, he is due for positive regression in the rest of his game following two terrible outings.
This season, Lopez ranks in the 72nd percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA and xBA. However, despite those strong metrics, the trust level with Lopez is non-existent right now after those last two outings.
Meanwhile, right-hander Lucas Giolito is slated to take the mound for Chicago. Through six starts this season, Giolito is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Neither bullpen can be trusted at the moment either, with the Twins' relief corps ranking eighth-worst in baseball by ERA over the last two weeks (5.21), and the White Sox ranking third-worst in the same department (6.02).
Twins vs White Sox Over/Under analysis
I would also lean towards the Under in this contest, but do not feel confident one way or the other. For starters, Lopez is due for that aforementioned positive regression after two uncharacteristically bad outings.
On the other hand, Giolito’s surface-level stats are a tad misleading. In his second start of the campaign, the right-hander got shelled by the Pittsburgh Pirates, as he allowed seven runs on 12 hits through four innings pitched.
However, in his four starts since then, Giolito boasts a 2.45 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Therefore, it is not shocking that he ranks in the 58th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, HardHit%, and xBA.
With that said, I would rather just fade Lopez’s strikeout prop than take any other angle in this contest.
Twins vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, May 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSN, NBCS-CH |
Twins vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Pablo Lopez (2-2, 4.00 ERA): After a commanding start to the campaign, Lopez has gotten absolutely rocked in each of his last two starts. Over those two outings, he possesses a fade-worthy 9.90 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. To make matters worse, those two starts came against the lowly Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals, which is cause for concern moving forward.
Lucas Giolito (1-2, 4.15 ERA): In contrast to Lopez, Giolito has rebounded nicely following a difficult start to the year. Over his last four starts, the right-hander boasts a 2.45 ERA and a 1.03 ERA. More impressively, those four starts came against some strong offenses with the likes of the Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, and Tampa Bay Rays (twice).
Latest injuries
Trend to know
Opposing starting pitchers have recorded six or fewer strikeouts in five of the last six games against the Chicago White Sox. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. White Sox
