Twins vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Boston's Bats Wake Up Early

Get your coffee ready as we've got some morning baseball on tap. The Boston Red Sox host the Minnesota Twins with first pitch at 11:10 a.m. for the annual Patriots' Day matinee. We like the BoSox to keep dominating the Twinkies in our betting picks.

Last Updated: Apr 18, 2022 8:26 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins will have to set an early alarm as they battle the Boston Red Sox on Patriots' Day, which features an 11:10 a.m. ET first pitch.

The Red Sox have taken two of the first three games in this four-game “wraparound” set, holding the Twins to one run over their last 18 innings. Boston is now 5-4 to start the 2022 campaign, while Minnesota is 3-6. 

Can the Twins break out of their offensive slump in Beantown? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. Red Sox on Monday, April 18.

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Twins vs Red Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Red Sox opened as consensus -141 favorites, and the line has hardly budged at most sportsbooks, though a couple of books have moved them to as high as -152. 

The initial consensus total was 9.0 runs, a line that has stayed consistent at most sites by Monday morning. However, several books are offering 8.5 as well.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Twins vs Red Sox predictions

Picks made on 4/18/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Twins vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Parl, Boston, MA
Date: Monday, April 18, 2022
First pitch: 11:10 a.m. ET
TV: MLB Network

Twins vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Dylan Bundy (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Bundy dazzled in his first start with the Twins last Monday, allowing just one hit and one walk over five shutout innings against the Seattle Mariners.

As long as he’s pitching well, Bundy should be allowed to toss more than the 67 pitches he tossed a week ago. But that’s far from guaranteed for the Oklahoma native, as he sports a career 4.69 ERA over 775 2-3 innings.

Rich Hill (0-0, 6.23 ERA): The well-traveled Hill got off to a rough start in his third stint with the Red Sox, allowing three runs over 4 1-3 innings against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday. 

Hill has stuck around as a 42-year-old because he can put zeroes on the scoreboard, as evidenced by his career 3.81 ERA (3.17 since 2015). But stamina has been a concern over his last two seasons, as he’s averaged just 4.93 innings over his last 40 appearances (39 starts).

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Twins: Sonny Gray SP (Out), Jorge Alcala RP (Out), Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF (Out), Byron Buxton CF (Out).
Red Sox: Tanner Houck SP (Day-to-Day), Josh Taylor RP (Out), Chris Sale SP (Out), James Paxton SP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Twins are 19-39 in their last 58 games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Red Sox.

Twins vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Red Sox lineup should welcome Dylan Bundy back to Boston with open arms on Monday morning. 

Fenway Park has been a house of horrors for Bundy, and he’s seen plenty of it as a longtime member of the Baltimore Orioles. He’s gone 2-5 with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over 41 1-3 innings at the historic venue. 

Bundy will have to beware of All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who owns a .333 lifetime batting average against him over 36 at-bats, with three homers and eight RBI. Once Bundy departs, the Twins’ 23rd-rated bullpen by ERA (4.17) will take over, affording Boston more scoring chances in the later innings.

Rich Hill counters for the Red Sox, and the grizzled veteran finds a good spot to attempt a bounce-back following his mediocre season debut against the Royals. 

Minnesota is batting a paltry .175 against southpaws in 2022, ranking 25th in the majors. That includes an 0-for-8 mark from slugger Miguel Sano, who’s off to a dreadful 2-for-26 (.077) start at the dish overall. The Twins will also still be without electric outfielder Byron Buxton, who is still nursing a knee injury. 

Hill can hardly be relied upon to get more than 15 outs, leaving Boston’s bullpen to sort out the remaining 12. Fortunately for manager Alex Cora, he has many reliable relief options at his disposal, including a pair of other tricky lefties in Jake Diekman and Matt Strahm, who have each looked strong to start the season.

On the whole, Red Sox relievers own a collective 3.03 ERA on the year, a number somewhat inflated by Matt Barnes and Austin Davis each sporting ERAs over 6.00.

Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (-137 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

It’s hard to back the Over with confidence in this spot, as the Twins could be hard-pressed to do their share. 

Minnesota has scored only one run over its last two games in Boston. Prized offseason acquisition Carlos Correa started this series 0-for-7 before getting Sunday off to clear his head. The star shortstop is batting just .133 at this juncture. 

Also not helping matters for the Twins is the injury Buxton suffered on Saturday, which is expected to keep him out of the lineup for about 10 days, further limiting an already struggling offense. 

The Red Sox are off to a solid but unspectacular offensive start, rating 16th in runs per game at 4.25 through nine contests. Though the Minnesota relief corps has been uninspiring based on ERA, this unit does boast a 78.9% strand rate (10th in baseball). 

With cold weather forecast (47 degrees F), and the wind blowing in at nearly 10 mph, the Under is the right side.

Prediction: Under 9 (-110 at BetMGM)

Best bet

The moneyline price on the Red Sox seems more than fair, so bettors should take advantage.

Multiple Boston bats have gotten off to a hot start, perhaps none more so than Rafael Devers. The All-Star third baseman is batting .368 with two homers and seven RBI through his first 38 at-bats of the season. 

Also worth a look in the prop markets is outfielder Alex Verdugo, who possesses a .300 batting average with three round-trippers and eight RBI.

The trends also suggest that Boston is the better bet, as they’re 39-18 in their last 57 games as a home favorite and 82-36 in their last 118 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. The Twins have dropped four of their last five games as an underdog.

Pick: Red Sox moneyline (-137 at WynnBet)

MLB parlays

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