The Detroit Tigers are on a roll, taking five of their last six games to put themselves closer and closer to locking up the American League Central. Now, they’ll look to move a game away from a sweep of the Minnesota Twins on the road.
We’ll explain in our Tigers vs. Twins predictions why both young starters could be in for a bit of trouble given the slugging ways of each offense.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Saturday, August 16.
Tigers vs Twins prediction
Tigers vs Twins best bet: Over 8.5 (-112)
We’ve seen several hard-throwing strikeout maestros make it to the big leagues this year and impress right away, and while it’s been a volatile season for Zebby Matthews he’s proven he’s just as good as any of them.
The right-hander has racked up a 30% strikeout rate through 44 innings with solid whiff and chase rates, and best of all he’s done so with a low 5.8% walk rate. We briefly saw Matthews last year, and the story was more or less the same with him – though he’s struck out far more batters this season.
That’ll make for an interesting matchup on Saturday as Matthews steps to a Detroit Tigers team which has struck out in 24.2% of plate appearances over the last two weeks.
The right-hander should have an easy time keeping his strikeout numbers in a good spot, but on the opposite side of the coin he should be liable to give up some loud contact.
The righty is a firm fly-ball pitcher, and as so he’s going to have to miss plenty of bats to mitigate the risk of facing an offense which is rocking a .177 Isolated Power in the last two weeks and has teed off against hard-throwing righties this season.
On the opposite end, Casey Mize has lacked the strikeout prowess of his counterpart here, and he’s relied primarily on the ground ball to get outs.
His Expected Batting Average has come back down to .236 this month, but his Expected Slugging remains quite high this season as he’s failed to keep his sinker down in the zone.
Both guys have issues when it comes to allowing well-struck balls and extra-base hits, and while the Minnesota Twins don’t necessarily get on base with the same kind of consistency as the Tigers, they have still come in with a solid .169 ISO in the last two weeks to prove they can land some big blows off Mize.
I think Matthews may very well get the best of Mize in this duel given his strikeout prowess, but it’s just very difficult not to lay off the total here.
We should get some home runs against both men, and while both bullpens have been solid they’ve allowed their fair share of home runs in the last 14 days as well.
Tigers vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Yes, it’s a bit confusing, but I’m going to combine the Over – and an offensive prop on the Tigers’ side of things, to come up with some odds worth taking.
I do like Matthews to hit six strikeouts – something he’s done in four of his last five outings and in six of nine overall – against a Tigers team which has produced a strikeout in nearly a quarter of its plate appearances in the last two weeks.
Matthews has strong numbers against the current Tigers roster to boot, carrying a 27.8% strikeout rate in 18 plate appearances, but one man who’s had his number is Kerry Carpenter.
The slugger is 2-for-3 off Matthews in his career with a .605 xSLG, and he’s second on the team with 96 total bases against fly-ball pitchers and a .278/.302/.667 slash this season.
We should see him come up with an extra-base hit, and judging by the line – and Matthews’ expert control – we shouldn’t have to worry about walks.
Tigers vs Twins odds
- Moneyline: Detroit -110 | Minnesota -110
- Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+158) | Minnesota +1.5 (-189)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Tigers vs Twins trend
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 away games (+9.40 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Twins.
How to watch Tigers vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Saturday, August 16, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | KMSP, FOX |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Casey Mize (11-4, 3.50 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Zebby Matthews (3-4, 5.11 ERA) |
Tigers vs Twins latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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