It's a small slate Thursday with slim pickings for home runs and MLB player props, but there are some bats to back and get me over this cold spell.
Familiarity is creating some value on the lead-off man in Camden Yards tonight, when George Springer steps in against old friend Chris Bassitt. Plus, we've got a relative unknown this afternoon in Wade Meckler while also backing Oneil Cruz in favorable Wrigley Field conditions.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 28.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Oneil Cruz |
+441 |
 Wade Meckler |
+940 |
 George Springer |
+520 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +34050 |
Home run pick: Oneil Cruz (+441)
There isn’t a massive list of +EV home run props today, but Oneil Cruz is firmly on it with a fair price around +400. He’ll face Chicago starter Colin Rea, who has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last three starts and ranks as one of the weaker starters on today’s board in both HR/FB rate and BlastContact%, per Fangraphs.
That matchup lines up well for Cruz, who is one of just three hitters in baseball over the last seven days with a swing speed north of 79 mph. His BlastContact% remains among the best in baseball, and he never cheats his swing.
Cruz will hit atop the order against the right-hander, and his one home run across his last 63 plate appearances makes this a good buy-low spot, especially with that rate sitting well below career norms. The 11-mph winds blowing out to right field only add to the appeal for the left-handed slugger.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Marquee Sports Network
Home run pick: Wade Meckler (+940)
Wade who? Wade Meckler, that’s who. I want a left-handed bat against Jack Flaherty with double-digit winds blowing out to right field at Comerica Park.
This also isn’t some bottom-of-the-order hitter. Meckler posted an OPS near 1.000 at Double-A before flying through Triple-A and joining the big-league club last week. He homered in his first game and enters today 6-for-14 at the plate. His SquareUp% is also one of the best on the team, even in the small sample.
Flaherty remains one of the worst ground-ball pitchers in baseball, with only 14 qualified starters carrying a lower ground-ball rate than his 31.8%. With the home-run cold streak I’ve been on, I’m more than willing to go off the board on a small slate for a massive number in a favorable matchup.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, ABTV
Home run pick: George Springer (+520)
The Toronto Blue Jays get a shot at former teammate Chris Bassitt, who has taken a clear step back this season. His strikeout rate has fallen off, and his grip on a rotation spot feels much looser than it once did.
There is a reason Toronto didn’t bring him back, and familiarity matters against a lineup that knows him well. His BlastContact% suggests even more damage should be coming, as the fly balls are being hit hard, and the expected metrics indicate the struggles are very real.
George Springer might not be the healthiest player these days, but the bat speed and swing path are still there. He owns the best Ideal Attack Angle percentage on the team, per FanGraphs, and has already gone deep twice over the last seven days while sporting a .577 slugging percentage. He has also taken Bassitt deep twice in a smaller 17-at-bat sample.
Of the Toronto bats on this short late Thursday slate, Springer at +450 or better is the best home run look.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SN1, MASN
- HR picks: 13-97, -29.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Oneil Cruz |
Bet Now +34050 |
| Wade Meckler |
|
| George Springer |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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