The Detroit Tigers have forced a winner-take-all Game 5 with a dominant victory over the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday. Now, all eyes are on their ace to see if he can carry them into the ALCS.
Our Tigers vs. Mariners predictions break down why Seattle’s pitching staff may struggle when it matters most in this high-stakes matchup.
Let’s dive into our top MLB picks for Friday, October 10.
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Tigers vs Mariners Game 5 predictions
Who will win Tigers vs Mariners Game 5
The Tigers will have the easy job here — get a few runs on the board for Tarik Skubal. The Mariners, meanwhile, will be deploying an unknown pitching plan that will likely feature some up-and-down mid-rotation guys. Detroit’s offense hasn’t been great in this series, but Seattle’s has been equally bad. I think the Tigers eke this one out behind their ace.
Tigers vs Mariners best bet
Tigers moneyline (-135)
October isn’t usually a time where offenses thrives, so perhaps we shouldn’t make a mountain out of both these teams hitting .218 and .219, respectively. With that said, the Detroit Tigers have looked like a slightly better group at the plate with a 9.2% walk rate and 0.35 strikeout to walk ratio this postseason, which is fifth among the 12 teams to play this month.
Detroit has at least been able to get some baserunners, and while this Seattle Mariners staff hasn’t walked a ton of guys, it hasn’t seemed to matter. The Tigers walked four times against Luis Castillo in Game 2 of this series with just three strikeouts, and it would seem they’ll see Castillo again here — albeit behind George Kirby in the most likely scenario.
The expected numbers haven’t indicated any sort of bad luck for the Tigers, but this is a team which ran the bases well in the regular season. While they finished on a sour note at the plate. this team does possess a ton of power.
They rank 12th against fly-ball pitchers this year as opposed to 28th against ground-ballers, which is crucial given Kirby and Castillo both pitch to a ton of fly balls — much like their teammates.
Kirby hasn’t been one of my favorite starters with a high .257 expected batting average and a ton of quality contact against him, and it’s been his strikeout and walk numbers which have taken him through games. He’s also leaned on his home park, where he has quality 3.38 ERA, but that may not be good enough with Tarik Skubal on the bump for the Tigers.
Other than Jorge Polanco’s two solo homers in Game 2, nobody has really been able to touch the lefty this postseason. He’s allowed just eight hits in 14 2/3 frames with 23 strikeouts and four walks, and only one of those came against Seattle, which has shown it will swing early and often.
The Tigers have an excellent matchup here with two fly-ball pitchers projected to throw, and there’s no doubt their pitching plan is superior with Skubal able to throw deep into games. You’ve got to love the road favorites.
Tigers vs Mariners Game 5 same-game parlay (SGP)
There are two men I clearly want to highlight here — the first of whom is an overlooked superstar in this league.
Riley Greene has been a machine this postseason, batting .259 with a hit in all but two of his seven games and a beefy .265 xBA and .593 expected slugging. He’s mashed righties to the tune of a .276 average this season, and did also favor fly-ballers over ground-ballers.
Jorge Polanco’s success against Skubal also can’t be overlooked. He’s now 9-for-29 lifetime with a .280 xBA in his 29 at-bats — and he’s also walked in none to just five strikeouts which should mean the ball’s coming back into play here.
He’s been quiet since Game 2, but now he’ll face his old friend.
Tigers vs Mariners SGP
- Tigers moneyline
- Riley Greene 1+ hits
- Jorge Polanco 1+ hits
Tigers vs Mariners home run pick for Game 5
Dillon Dingler (+700)
I’ve been on Dillon Dingler to homer in every game this series, and he’s come painstakingly close. He flew out to the track early in Game 4 and has now compiled a .465 xSLG and stellar 46.7% hard-hit rate in 15 at-bats to stand as the most dangerous home run weapon on this team at the moment.
Homers are hard to come by at T-Mobile, but there’s an incredible amount of value to be found here. The guy keeps scorching the ball.
Tigers vs Mariners Game 5 odds
- Moneyline: Detroit -135 | Seattle +115
- Run line: Detroit -1.5 | Seattle +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Tigers vs Mariners trend
The Tigers have covered the F5 run line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Mariners.
How to watch Tigers vs Mariners and Game 5 info
| Location | T-Mobile Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Friday, October 10, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | George Kirby (10-8, 4.21 ERA) |
Tigers vs Mariners latest injuries
Tigers vs Mariners weather
Expect a cool, damp feel around T-Mobile Park this evening. It should be mostly cloudy with spotty showers lingering from the afternoon, before giving way to drying trends later. Temperatures will sit near the upper-50s at first pitch and slide toward the upper-40s by the late innings. If showers hang around near game time, the M’s can deploy the retractable roof—which functions like a giant “umbrella” to keep precipitation off the field rather than sealing the park into a climate-controlled dome.
Weather-wise, the biggest baseball impact is the chill as cooler air tends to knock a bit off carry, so long flies are slightly more likely to die on the warning track than on a warm summer night. If the roof is closed to fend off drizzle, rain and most wind effects are neutralized, but on-field temperature still matters because T-Mobile’s roof doesn’t fully enclose the stadium—wind and ambient temps can still sneak in around the sides. That tilt favors pitching and run prevention on the margins and could reward contact-oriented approaches and aggressive base running over pure slugging.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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