The desert double dip fell through last night, but getaway Wednesday always offers some great pitcher and MLB player prop edges and angles.
Griffin Jax is coming off the IL with an elbow issue and only threw 42 pitches in his one rehab start. His leash is very questionable. Davis Martin is also coming off the shelf, but his Over strikeouts is projecting well on a conservative pitch count. Finally, Bryce Miller is not in the trust tree, and getting deep vs. the Red Sox is unlikely.
These are my favorite MLB strikeout and pitcher props for Wednesday, Sept. 2.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Griffin Jax |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | +104 |
 Davis Martin |
Over 3.5 strikeouts | +105 |
 Bryce Miller |
Under 15.5 outs | -116 |
Strikeout prop: Griffin Jax Under 4.5 strikeouts (+104)
Let's keep it simple off the top. Griffin Jax is coming off the IL after throwing just 42 pitches in his only rehab start. He has been dealing with right elbow discomfort, a major red flag, and pushing him far beyond 60 pitches seems unlikely. There is also a chance he is innings-capped, as Tampa should be cautious with Jax with a long playoff run on the horizon.
He's better than a K-per-inning pitcher, but getting to 15 outs is doubtful. That was his leash on a full workload, and now it could be cut in half. The Rays have all of their middle relievers and long arms available today, giving them little reason to push Jax deep into this game.
The market is already moving, and THE BAT is projecting 60 pitches, with a fair price of -150 on this total at that pitch count. Todd Cordell still likes the Rays on the ML in his Mets vs. Rays predictions.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, SNY
Strikeout prop: Davis Martin Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105)
Houston has not been a good offense since the beginning of August, ranking 23rd in wOBA. Davis Martin is returning from the IL, but unlike Jax, this total is a little short, and the projections agree.
THE BAT is calling for 3.8 Ks on 74 pitches. Martin went 15 outs in his lone rehab start, allowing just one hit while striking out five over 59 pitches. That makes the additional 15 pitches in the projection feel about right.
A blister issue slowed Martin down, but now that he's past it, he could get back to his 8.24 K/9 rate from the first half of the season instead of his 6.63 mark after the All-Star break.
There is some leash concern, but that rehab start looked sharp, and the play-money price makes this an easy decision. I'd play this to -105/-110, with a fair price of -120.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Network, Chicago Sports Network
Pitcher out prop: Bryce Miller Under 15.5 outs (-116)
Bryce Miller was just demoted to the bullpen before an injury to the Seattle rotation sent him back to a starting role. The demotion was warranted, as he has been one of the worst second-half pitchers in baseball, with the fifth-worst ERA and 10th-worst FIP.
He threw 104 pitches in his last start, a season-high, and still recorded just 13 outs. He has failed to get beyond 15 outs in three of his last four outings.
The command is lacking, and the ball is leaving the park, as Miller has allowed a home run in eight straight starts. There isn't much trust in Miller right now, and the middle of the Seattle bullpen is fresh.
For a pitcher who has reached 91+ pitches in just 29% of his starts, expecting him to get back to that range after a demotion is a tough ask. The market is already as low as -140 at some books.
Miller is the reason I'm backing Mickey Gasper today to go deep in today's MLB home run props.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, Mariners.TV
- Prop picks: 28-25, +5.48 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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